Phyrex|2月 01, 2026 20:49
I hardly watched the market all day today. I just need to grasp two time points. One is whether the Asian time zone bought the bottom or followed the sell-off or remained indifferent after yesterday's sharp drop in the morning. Currently, I have chosen to remain indifferent, and then it depends on the opening time of the US stock market in the evening. Although there was no opening, Saturday's decline started at the same time. If Sunday hasn't ended yet, it is likely to start at this time. I woke up at almost 4am and the reaction is not big. Next, it depends on Monday.
At the same two time points, Asian investors started working on Monday. One was the opening of US stock futures, and it was uncertain whether they would continue to decline. The reason for the final decline can only be seen from an emotional perspective. If the US stock continues to fall, many people are worried that Bitcoin will continue to fall. However, from my personal perspective, BTC has already fallen before the US stock over the weekend, and the possibility of such a significant decline is not high.
Especially the sharp decline over the weekend is also due to liquidity reasons. After working days, liquidity increases and buying power also increases. Yesterday, we calculated that the average buying price of spot ETFs is around $75000, and most of the machines below the current price of 20 w/t for miners have stopped working. Even the cost of MSTR is above $76000, which should be of interest to many institutions.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate on Sunday was quite high over the weekend, indicating that the fluctuation of BTC prices on the second day still caused panic among some short-term investors. It will depend on Monday's reaction, especially with a small shutdown on Monday. However, the impact of this shutdown is not significant, and the market is estimated to end on Tuesday, so there is no further negative political sentiment.
The recent decline of Microsoft is the trigger, and the cash position of fund managers may be the last straw to overwhelm the camel. If both factors are correct, the space for the US stock market to continue to decline is actually limited, as there is currently no systemic risk. The narrative of AI is still very powerful.
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