“Everyone is bearish, so shouldn’t we go the other way?” If that’s the logic, weren’t people saying the same thing when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000? So why does this idea of “doing the opposite” keep coming up? The reason is actually very simple. The market expects far more upside than downside, and more importantly, it needs prices to go up. How many people do you think managed risk properly? And how many chased price above $100,000 after reading optimistic analyses and betting aggressively on further upside? The answer is already clear. Let’s look at the chart. The blue box represents a period after a long decline, when market participants were exhausted, and even positive commentary easily led to conflict. In this phase, rebounds are not seen as opportunities. As a result, even bearish patterns become ideal setups for contrarian moves. In fact, in the early stages of the 2023 bull market, many called for a correction in this zone, yet the market moved in the opposite direction. Skepticism and hesitation dominated, not buying pressure. That’s why contrarian strategies worked so well. But a lot of time has passed since then. Market participants have learned how to “fade” obvious patterns, and certain repeated setups have started to look reliable. That phase is represented by the green box. Now, even when a clear bearish pattern appears, the default reaction is: “This will get faded again.” From a whale’s perspective, pushing price lower is not a problem at all. Most participants are positioned the other way, convinced that price ultimately has to go higher. A classic example is the Fear & Greed Index. Since 2023, the market has been conditioned by the uptrend. Fear readings have repeatedly marked local bottoms, so the community repeats the same line: “Buy the fear.” But fear metrics only matter when people actually feel fear. If fear is immediately interpreted as an opportunity, can real fear even exist? Price is expected to rise. Patterns are viewed as buying chances. That is not fear. The data from 2021 tells a different story. Even during the fear phases back then, no one actually accepted the "fear" for what it was. Didn’t people say the exact same things then? “Crisis is an opportunity” or “Buy the fear.” And did anyone imagine that prices would continue to fall for another year, dropping more than 75% after that? The overall sentiment at the time was likely not very different from today. I still view the market as being in a bearish phase. Especially during the consolidation that began in late November, the sentiment I observed was far more optimistic and hopeful than I had expected. Because of that, I believe this downturn is likely to be much longer and more painful than I initially anticipated. Even if prices fall further from here, people will likely continue forcing data to fit conclusions they have already decided on. And inevitably, we’ll hear the same phrase again: “On-chain data is still positive.” It feels like more time is needed.(mignolet)