[Polymarket and Kalshi Diverge Due to Definition Differences, U.S. Government Shutdown Highlights Prediction Market 'Definition Precision' Issue] Odaily Planet Daily News: As the U.S. Congress failed to complete the full legislative process for the appropriations bill, the U.S. government is expected to enter a short-term, partial shutdown starting Saturday Eastern Time. However, this event also highlights the issue of 'definition precision' in prediction market contracts. Prediction contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi regarding whether the government will shut down have shown differences due to varying definitions of trigger conditions. Related contracts on Polymarket indicate a government shutdown probability of about 88%, while similar contracts on Kalshi show a probability as high as 93%. The reason may be that some contracts use whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) officially announces the shutdown as the settlement criterion, considering even a partial shutdown as valid. This incident underscores the high sensitivity of prediction markets to contract trigger conditions, official confirmation entities, and timing in political and macroeconomic events. The details of the contracts themselves have become a significant factor influencing odds. (CoinDesk)