The Behavioral Meaning of STH-RP (Teaching Chapter) ——On chain interpretation from holding cost to bull bear switching STH-RP (STH Realized Price) calculates the price of an address with a holding time of less than 155 days when it last moved on the chain. Where is the current 'average cost' for the group of people who bought BTC in the past 155 days - it is the overall cost center for short-term holders. Many people equate it with SMA120 in K-line technology theory, but they are fundamentally different. STH-RP is the cost of "people", SMA120 is the average of "prices"; One is behavioral structure, and the other is mathematical smoothing. SMA120 will almost change with price fluctuations, while STH-RP depends on the position of the previous and current turnover of the holding group. In theory, if all the high priced chips hold on to BTC during its decline, STH-RP will not decrease as the price drops; Vice versa. (Figure 1) Even in many cases, we may find a directional relationship between STH-RP and BTC prices, where prices decrease while STH actually rises. For example, in Figure 1, on February 5, 2025, BTC was $96000 and STH-RP was $91912; On March 9th, BTC fell to $82000, but STH-RP rose to $93599; When BTC falls, most of the chips that undergo turnover are low for low (short-term trading), and rarely high for low (cutting meat and leaving). There are also some low for high (profit taking), so STH-RP actually rises. (Figure 2) And this wave of pullback seems to have a fundamental difference from March 25: STH-RP rapidly decreases synchronously when prices fall; If the slope of the curve is not clear enough, we can add an algorithm to calculate the "7-day rate of change"; It is not difficult to see how severe the "downward degree" is from the amplitude of waveform vibration (compared to August 24 and March 25). During this period, there have been a large number of "high to low" situations, and the market has truly panicked; Only when confidence collapses, would such irrational behavior of fleeing quickly without considering costs be made. However, the turning point of STH-RP from continuous rise to continuous decline occurred on October 11, 2025. (Figure 3) So, if we look back at the STH-RP full cycle chart of BTC now, we can understand that the positions where I drew the green dashed line happened to be the periods when each cycle went from bull to bear in the past. Although the historical background has been different in the past, there have also been cases of STH-RP rapidly declining, with a significant and sustained negative 7-day change rate. Attention! This does not necessarily mean that the occurrence of this phenomenon will lead to a deep bear pattern, but rather that every time a bear market (or a temporary bear market) is entered, it is caused by a fundamental change in "investor sentiment". That is to say, macro changes in expectations affect emotions, emotions transmit behavior, behavior determines supply and demand, and supply and demand reflect prices. And when we study on chain data, we are essentially studying investor behavior, inferring market sentiment from behavior, and then combining macro events to verify whether current behavior is reasonable. If there is, then the sentiment is real and objective, and it will eventually be reflected in the price. (Sometimes, if I make a mistake in my analysis, it's because my interpretation of the data is flawed; or if there are special events that change expectations; the former requires reflection and summarization, while the latter requires timely adjustment. It doesn't matter if I get slapped in the face for being wrong, the important thing is not to be complacent and blindly pursue the right path, and ultimately misidentify myself.)