What everyone is most concerned about now is definitely whether the gold market will turn back into the cryptocurrency circle after the temporary end of the gold market, so we still need to trace back why gold has risen first. Previously, the market referred to Bitcoin as digital gold, but in the past six months, with market differentiation, this voice has become increasingly quiet. Previously, everyone thought that the total amount of Bitcoin was limited and could serve as a hedge against fiat currency inflation. However, as the price of Bitcoin fell from 12000 to 80000, no one dared to mention it anymore. The actual market is more complex than we imagine, and not every degree of geopolitical risk will trigger a rise in safe haven assets. This is not to say that the stored value function of the pancake and the safe haven function are Schr ö dinger's cats. Just like car shock absorbers, they all have their own suitable working conditions and cannot handle every situation calmly. We can roughly divide crises into three levels: Level 1: Geopolitical tension+rising interest rates+rising term premium (current main trend) The core of this crisis is: increasing uncertainty, but the system has not yet shut down. The performance characteristics are: What funds need is not sudden wealth, but 'survival first' What the market fears is the spread of war, the loss of control in the long run, and the forced deformation of policies The Federal Reserve is not rescuing the economy, it is guarding the anchor (guarding the US dollar/defending US bonds) Who is the most popular at this time? Gold. Because gold is the "thermometer of instant confidence": if you are not confident about institutional, geopolitical, and political noise, but you don't think the world will explode tomorrow - then buy gold. And Bitcoin often doesn't rise or even weakens in this category, because what is it being traded for? ——High beta risk assets. As risk appetite decreases, leverage increases, and cash becomes tight, BTC is easily sold as "sellable liquidity". Second tier: liquidity crisis (margin pressure/USD cash is king) If it further deteriorates to the second level, the market will no longer discuss "logic", only "replenishing margin, filling gaps, and replenishing cash". At this point, the most valuable asset is not gold or BTC, but rather US dollar cash and the shortest duration safe asset. Typical features: All types of assets fall together (correlation increases) You will see 'good assets are also being sold' because everyone is short of cash BTC, a 24-hour, highly liquid asset, often gets hit first That is to say, if the cryptocurrency market collapses first, it does not mean that BTC is not viable, but rather that cash is more scarce than faith. Third tier: Credit crisis/sovereign debt crisis (collapse of fiat currency trust) Only in the third tier will Bitcoin truly activate its safe haven properties. The meaning of this crisis is: The market is no longer concerned about "volatility", but about "settlement and credit" No longer worried about one or two interest rate cuts, but worried about whether "sovereign debt can hold on" Funds are beginning to seek "off system assets" to hedge against long-term currency and credit risks At this point, gold will continue to strengthen, but BTC will experience the kind of independent market that everyone most wants to see - one that is in the same direction as gold, or even stronger. If you see a surge in gold prices and BTC prices, and it's not because of a single positive news, but because 'everyone is changing positions', then it means: The market's trust in the "USD/JPY/sovereign debt system" is rapidly returning to zero. To summarize: Gold up, BTC not up: indicates that it is still in the first tier - afraid of chaos, but not believing that the world will collapse. Gold up, BTC down, counterfeit collapse: indicating reaching the second level - cash shortage, first cut liquidity. Gold rises and BTC also skyrockets: indicating the start of the third phase - questioning the underlying credit of fiat currencies and sovereign debt. Then what we need to observe next is whether BTC will enter the second or third mode, and when Walsh comes to power, Trump's visit to China will be the key variable, that is, Q2 may be able to go out of the trend. In this way, the pancake fluctuated from October last year to April, which happened to be half a year, consistent with the sideways oscillation cycle of gold last year. If Walsh starts aggressively reducing its balance sheet in Q2, BTC may first experience a period of "deleveraging" pains until the market confirms a liquidity floor. But he probably won't be so aggressive as soon as he takes office, slowing down and expanding his watch is already sufficient. If Trump's visit to China has reached an unexpected trade easing (such as the continuation of the tariff truce), the geopolitical tension will change from "high fever" to "chronic disease". At this point, the safe haven premium of gold will fall back, while BTC will rebound as a risk asset following expectations of economic recovery in China and the United States. If the negotiations during the visit to China break down, it will lead to further fragmentation of the global trading system, intensified inflation in the United States, and even discussions on "US debt and legal repayment credit". So BTC will activate the "escape pod" attribute outside the system, initiating an independent surge that resonates with gold. But this is a low probability event.