律动BlockBeats|Jan 30, 2026 07:21
Analyst: After the sharp decline, the overall position structure of the BTC market still tends to be bullish, and there is a risk of deleveraging again
According to BlockBeats, on January 30th, cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the "dominance of Bitcoin futures long and short positions closing" data reached 97%, and the 30 day moving average rose to 31.4%. This means that almost all forced liquidation comes from long positions, and buyers have been under systemic pressure over the past month.
The extreme values of oscillation indicators are usually synchronized with the peak of forced selling and may bring short-term stabilization. But in the absence of other confirmation signals, this is not an indication of a trend reversal - to form a sustainable 'local bottom', at least one needs to see the oscillation indicator return to zero or the 30 day average line decline.
Axel added that despite the sharp drop in prices and a series of liquidations, BTC's funding rate remains positive: yesterday's reading was an annualized 43.2%. Although significantly lower than the peak in October November (100%+), it indicates that the market's demand for long exposure still dominates. In the past month, negative values have only appeared briefly and sporadically.
In large-scale liquidation, the capital rate remains positive, increasing the risk of the market deleveraging again: this means that the market is rapidly rebuilding long positions or is not yet ready to fully liquidate. The complete surrender of derivatives is usually accompanied by a shift in funding rates towards neutral or negative areas - which has not yet occurred.
Two charts together depict a scenario where deleveraging may not have been completed: closing positions has dealt a heavy blow to bulls, but the overall position structure still leans towards a bullish outlook.
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