Trump has once again sacrificed the national emergency as a deadly weapon. He bypassed Congress this time and directly used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose comprehensive tariffs, targeting countries that provide oil to Cuba. This is indeed a heavy blow to the financial market. 1. Regularizing policy weapons and increasing market unpredictability The national state of emergency has become a routine tool of this government (previously used against Greenland and Venezuela earlier this month). In addition, the Trump version of the QE plan, which previously bought $200 billion worth of MBS, also wants to reach into the Federal Reserve's plate. Investors are concerned about the unpredictability of financial markets through strong intervention by administrative forces. Everyone doesn't know if he will suddenly announce tariffs on the entire continent tomorrow due to some geopolitical incident. Cryptocurrencies now behave more like risky assets than digital gold in the face of this geopolitical emergency. This extreme administrative measure of de globalization is forcing the entire cryptocurrency market to undergo a painful repricing. 2. Current macro situation Globalization is further disintegrating due to the global supply chain risks caused by frequent use of IEEPA emergency states. The tax reduction dividend brought by the super bill OBBBA has weakened, the government's fiscal deficit has widened, and the US Treasury is under pressure. Geopolitically, the change of control in Venezuela and the Cuban blockade have caused a dramatic shock in the energy market. The rising geopolitical risk premium in the Western Hemisphere has led to a rise in risk aversion, driving up the prices of gold and silver and causing extreme risk aversion among investors. 3. The severe challenges and political games of this year The term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will expire in May this year, and Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed in recent public occasions, accusing it of not cooperating with his interest rate cutting agenda. The market is concerned that the next Federal Reserve chairman will completely become an administrative tool. This uncertainty has led to abnormal fluctuations in US bond yields, causing damage to the long-term credit of US bonds. The inflationary pressure caused by tariffs requires the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged to prevent inflation from rising, but the market crash and economic slowdown also require interest rate cuts, putting monetary policy in a dilemma. The current market pricing logic has departed from traditional economic fundamentals and is now watching Trump's signals of madness or the White House's real-time executive orders. In the short term, financial markets are expected to continue digesting the risk premium brought about by political uncertainty. The next key observation point: -Supreme Court: Will it intervene to restrict the President from abusing IEEPA to impose tariffs. -February economic data: If non farm payroll data further weakens and CPI rebounds due to tariffs, stagflation will turn from concern into reality.