Circle's biggest bear raises rating to neutral, warning of high correlation between stock price and cryptocurrency market

Wall Street analyst and Circle's biggest bear, Ed Engel, raised his rating from "sell" to "neutral," but lowered his target price from $75 to $60 and warned that the stock's trend is still highly dependent on the cryptocurrency market cycle, performing like a "roller coaster. Engel pointed out that Circle's stock price is synchronized with Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market cycle, with over 75% of its stablecoin USDC supply used for high-risk activities in DeFi or exchanges, and a correlation of up to 0.66 with Ethereum prices, and this trend may continue until mid-2026. He believes that Circle is essentially a cyclical stock with a high valuation, and potential upward factors include the passage of the CLARITY Act (probability 60%) and the tokenization trend of US assets in DeFi, but the company's revenue is still closely related to speculative activities in the short term.