In recent days, gold has been continuously hitting new historical highs, and there are various opinions in the market: geopolitics, inflation, the US dollar, safe haven... are all correct. But my analysis still returns to the main theme of the US Japan economy and monetary policy: gold is not rising out of thin air, it is hedging against a once-in-a-century major change. 1. When Trump came to power, he began to fight a tariff war with China - he failed to win - and had to go back and do a good job of his allies. He should not only build prestige, but also shift contradictions. 2. Japan signs 550 billion yuan sale clause, causing massive bleeding - Shigeru Ishiba completes his historical mission and steps down - the position of Japanese Prime Minister becomes a hot potato - Aso urges Hayao Takashi to take over the blame 3. In order to consolidate its position, Takashi constantly leans towards the right-wing, with the domestic market consolidating its basic foundation, while the external market directly pushes Sino Japanese relations towards tension. 4. China is worried about having no excuse to do business with Japan - whether from the perspective of the industrial chain or historical emotions, it has to do it - the high market sends an excuse - take advantage of the situation and do it vigorously 5. China continues to intensify its efforts until it introduces export controls on dual-use military and civilian items - the Japanese economy has become a dead end in futures - the Japanese yen exchange rate has completely collapsed, approaching 160 6. In order to save their lives, Japan had to sell a large amount of US bonds for US dollars and buy Japanese yen - at this time, Europe also began to seek refuge due to the Greenland incident, selling US bonds and returning to Europe. 7. The two major global US bond holding groups (Japan and Europe) are simultaneously selling, leading to a drying up of liquidity in the US bond market and a risk of uncontrolled upward movement in US bond yields. Originally, the US inflation data may have allowed for a rate cut in January. But in the current frenzy of selling off US bonds, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, the attractiveness of US dollar assets will further decline, and the wave of bond selling will evolve into a tsunami. What's even more alarming is that Powell is still under investigation and the independence of the Federal Reserve is being questioned. I didn't want to lower in January, but now I have a strong reason: to protect the liquidity of US Treasury bonds and prevent a collapse of US dollar credit. He is wiping his butt for the selling behavior of Japan and Europe, which is why he cannot cut interest rates. The combined effect of the above factors ultimately led to a 5% jump in gold prices. As the saying goes, in times of prosperity, buy antiques; in times of chaos, buy gold. The collapse of the Japanese yen as a peripheral currency to the US dollar naturally led to a surge in market demand for safe haven. 11. The most awkward thing now is actually the United States. Americans now have to endure the pain of Japan's dumping of US bonds while publicly declaring their "support for Japan". If Japan were to completely collapse and then sell off the remaining one trillion US dollars in debt, the US dollar system would truly explode in place. When traditional funds panic, they usually choose gold, and only then will radical funds rush towards Bitcoin. Gold excels at dealing with real-time confidence fluctuations, war risks, and fiat currency depreciation that does not involve a complete system collapse; Bitcoin is more suitable for hedging long-term concerns, such as sovereign debt crises and long-term large-scale currency depreciation. in other words: The current crisis level is not sufficient to 'activate' Bitcoin's safe haven properties; If Bitcoin also skyrockets like gold at this time, it indicates that the market's trust in the US dollar/Japanese yen fiat currency system is rapidly returning to zero; On the other hand, if liquidity dries up and causes the cryptocurrency market to collapse first (because everyone lacks cash to replenish margin), it means that the crisis has penetrated deep into the bone marrow - even the most speculative money has been drained. In addition to the main plot mentioned above, the tense situation in Iran has pushed up oil prices, Russia's tightening of exports of palladium (a core material for automotive exhaust catalysts) has oppressed the Japanese automotive industry, and the Greenland incident in Europe has all added fuel to the fire. At present, it seems that the high market has taken control of the United States, using its own debt to coerce the US into saving Japan. However, Americans may not be so easy to deceive, and it is difficult to say whether they will follow in Abe's footsteps. Why hasn't Bitcoin risen? Because now is a liquidity crisis where cash is king, not a vicious inflation moment where fiat currency becomes paper.