K三 凯|Jan 29, 2026 10:21
BlackRock's outlook for 2026: Big and strong encryption, small and soft encryption
When AI first became popular a few years ago, ordinary people needed to hang a ladder, deploy a local model, and understand the code, graphics card, and computer configuration to draw a picture. I saw a domestic blogger post an article at that time!
The general meaning is: Don't be anxious, don't rush, don't rush to learn. Technology iterates exponentially, and the threshold for AI will only get lower and lower.
As he said, in just a few years, AI has been embedded in our phones, browsers, and office software, becoming a daily necessity for the general public. Once the trend is formed, it is irreversible.
Recently, the world's largest asset management institution, BlackRock, has just released its "2026 Economic Outlook Report". In this document, we not only see the dominance of AI, but also read between the lines the subtle changes that cryptocurrency is undergoing: it is becoming unprecedentedly "big" and "strong", but in the ocean of global finance, it is still "small" and full of opportunities.
The following are the highlighted points in the document:
Firstly, AI still dominates: the $5 trillion capital frenzy!
Despite inherent risks in the market, artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to dominate the global market until 2026.
BlackRock predicts that by 2030, global capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (CapEx) will reach $5 trillion to $8 trillion. This astronomical amount of funding will make AI a core engine that influences global inflation, reshapes investment patterns, and drives market growth.
Secondly, BlackRock's strategy is very clear: to heavily invest in US stocks, especially those at the core of the AI value chain.
They believe that AI will be a powerful driver of US GDP, and its current profit potential is far from fully unleashed.
But what role does cryptocurrency play in the feast of AI?
If AI is productivity, then Web3 is becoming the infrastructure for production relations. In the perspective of 2026, we see that "AI x Crypto" is no longer a simple concept hype:
BlackRock believes that AI is the absolute mainstay for the next five years, with investments of up to $8 trillion expected to reshape the economy. Cryptocurrency, as the "shadow companion" of AI, is evolving from a simple financial asset to an underlying network that carries the operation of AI economy.
Thirdly, the "Crypto Safe Harbor" and RWA Revolution under Debt Crisis
If AI provides the driving force for growth, then macroeconomic fragility provides a reason for hedging.
There is a disturbing data hidden in the BlackRock report: the US federal debt will exceed $38 trillion.
This indicates that the market outlook is extremely fragile. When debt snowballs, traditional hedging methods such as US Treasury bonds may become ineffective. This economic environment will force Wall Street giants to accelerate the allocation of "non sovereign hard assets" - that is, digital assets.
Some radical analysts even predict that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to surpass $200000, driven by institutional safe haven funds.
Wall Street is no longer taboo, from watching from afar to going to hell in the end
Two or three years ago, traditional institutions were still very secretive about cryptocurrencies, seeing them as a fierce beast. But in 2026, BlackRock will directly list "tokenization" as a core force in changing investment methods.
The popularity of stablecoins may indicate the emergence of tokenization trends, and blockchain technologies such as Ethereum are expected to benefit from it
This is a huge barometer: in the future financial world, the boundaries between public and private equity, real world assets and digital assets will gradually disappear.
Tokenization brings physical assets onto the blockchain, enabling 24/7 real-time settlement and global liquidity. The US debt crisis has shaken the foundation of traditional finance, and Bitcoin is becoming a new "digital gold".
Davos 2026, World Financial System Embracing Cryptocurrency
Another noteworthy event is the recently held Davos Forum, where Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong and French central bank governor Fran ç ois Villeroy de Galhau engaged in a heated debate over whether cryptocurrency could change the future.
CZ's speech directly pointed to the core: the "partial reserve requirement system" of banks is the root cause of liquidity crisis. In contrast, the 100% reserve model of encrypted trading platforms has been proven to be more reliable and transparent than traditional banks when faced with billions of dollars in instant withdrawal pressure.
With the comprehensive penetration of institutional funds such as ETFs and sovereign funds, 2026 will usher in an unprecedented "super cycle" - no longer the emotional fluctuations of individual investors, but the continuous inflow of institutional allocation.
Returning to the main topic of the article, why do we say 'encryption is very strong, very small, and very soft'?
Very strong: From the perspective of technical potential, institutional consensus and AI integration, cryptocurrency is not only "money", but also the hard skeleton of the next generation Internet and AI economy. The entry of BlackRock, the tokenization status of US dollar assets, and its anti inflation properties all prove its strong vitality.
Very small and soft: but if we zoom in to the global financial system (hundreds of trillion dollar stock, bond, and real estate markets), the total market value of the cryptocurrency market is still very small; Faced with regulatory fluctuations and macro liquidity changes, it still exhibits a soft (high volatility) performance.
But this is precisely where the opportunity lies.
If it's already as big as real estate and doesn't move like a mountain, ordinary people won't have a chance. Because it is still 'small' and 'soft', it means there is still huge room for growth from the true ceiling.
BlackRock has already seen this card clearly, how about you?
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