币圈女菩萨 | Pizza披萨🍕
币圈女菩萨 | Pizza披萨🍕|1月 29, 2026 03:25
Now CZ is talking about the Bitcoin supercycle, do you guys believe it will actually happen? Historically, Bitcoin's price has seen huge ups and downs, mostly following the halving cycle, roughly every 4 years: Halving → Mining rewards cut in half → Supply decreases → Market expectations push prices up → Bull market frenzy usually lasts 1-2 years, then the bubble bursts → Bear market for 1-2 years → Wait for the next halving This script has been pretty accurate after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, so many people treat the 4-year cycle as a golden rule. Based on this logic, after the bull market in 2025, 2026 should enter a bear market. CZ believes that this cycle, especially starting in 2026, might be different. It won’t just be a simple bull followed by a bear; instead, we might see: a longer period of high-level consolidation during an uptrend, possibly lasting 5-10 years or even longer. It will no longer rely solely on the halving as the main driver but will be driven by stronger structural demand, forming something like a slow bull or long bull market. He has mentioned this view multiple times in interviews, with the core driving factors including: 1⃣ Extremely favorable U.S. policies 2⃣ Large-scale and continuous inflows from institutional and sovereign players 3⃣ Bitcoin’s identity shift from a speculative toy → mainstream reserve asset, becoming a long-term allocation target for institutions 4⃣ Supportive macro environment The idea of the 4-year rule versus the supercycle is also a major point of debate for many people when it comes to mid-to-long-term bullish or bearish views. So, do you think the supercycle will really happen?
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