Phyrex
Phyrex|1月 28, 2026 20:35
Summary of the January Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting Overall, there will be more gossip questions from reporters than the current inflation issue, but Powell is clearly unwilling to answer any gossip questions, including whether he will continue to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve after resigning as chairman. This is also the first time in my long listening to reporters' questions that Powell has not answered in the first five questions, even including Nick's question. In other questions, I mainly want to know if we will enter the interest rate cut phase next. Personally, I think Powell is quite dovish in his response, with almost no hawkish remarks. When a journalist asked if he would consider raising interest rates if the labor market remained unchanged but inflation continued to rise, Powell's answer was still not within the scope of discussion at present. This question is almost always involved, and Powell's answer is the same every time. Although Powell did not explicitly state the next interest rate adjustment route, he did not directly deny that he would cut interest rates in the next time like he did in the last two times. Instead, he said that it would be decided based on data, which is a more dovish answer. He also stated that if the labor market declines, the Federal Reserve will still consider cutting interest rates more. And it is believed that the downturn in the labor market is closely related to immigration policies. In this meeting, I personally felt that Powell was in Trump's "yin and yang". First of all, the downside risk of labor data will bring about economic downturn, and the main reason is immigration. Everyone knows that this is one of the policies that Trump has made the greatest efforts in addition to tariffs since taking office. Secondly, it is believed that if there were no tariffs, the Federal Reserve would have entered a comprehensive interest rate cut channel long ago. It is because tariffs have brought about a new round of inflation increase. Without tariffs, the current inflation would be very close to 2%. Of course, Powell also believes that if tariffs no longer have any impact, the impact of tariffs on inflation may reach its peak by mid-2026, which means inflation should begin to fall back. There's nothing else. Powell is still very rational now, and what he says is within the expected template, still maintaining an unwavering 2% inflation rate and determining the next interest rate adjustment based on data without making any expectations. However, Powell briefly gave some advice to the successor of the Federal Reserve Chairman, which is to avoid elections and politics and maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve. Overall, the impact of this meeting on the market is not significant. @bitget VIP, Lower rates and more generous benefits
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