飞凡
飞凡|Jan 28, 2026 13:04
The current cryptocurrency market is in the post copycat era. For a long time to come, the cryptocurrency market will have to clean up the aftermath of the copycat layout from a few years ago. In the past, retail investors placed their bets on knockoffs based on their high Beta attributes (i.e. when the market rose 1%, it rose 5%), The adoption of ETFs has turned Bitcoin into a liquidity black hole in this cycle, People are beginning to realize that there is a compliance threshold for money on Wall Street, and this liquidity can only buy BTC and ETH, I simply cannot and will not be able to reinvest profits into Solana's Tugou or new L2 tokens like individual investors, So the trickle down effect of capital flow disappeared. At the same time as Bitcoin takes away liquidity, it also leaves a crappy stall for the counterfeit market, The core issue of this mess, which I call the internal debt of altcoins, is three in total: 1. Supply of debt. This week alone, Shanzhai has unlocked $1.39B, and next week there will be $1.4B unlocked. Even a single project has unlocked over hundreds of millions of levels, which I call Shanzhai supply debt. 2. Valuation bonds. As a cost of overdrawing the future in the early years of encryption, 21.3% of the high market value projects in the Top 300 belong to low liquidity and high FDV. However, now that the game of drumming and flower passing has ended, a portion of this valuation will inevitably turn into market debt. 3. Liquidity bonds. Out of 25.2 million assets, 13.4 million (more than 53%) have ceased trading or been liquidated, with liquidity shattered by hundreds of L2 and tens of thousands of domestic dog stocks. Except for the top tier Meme and mainstream coins, most altcoins have extremely poor depth and no ability to absorb buying and selling. On the other hand, these are also the three elements for finding projects in the current counterfeit market, Transparent and fully liquid, with sufficient profitability to support valuation, and excellent liquidity supported by at least a few major market makers or ETFs, otherwise they will be regarded as remnants of the pre knockoff era.
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