Before Putin hit Ukraine, the Chinese Internet called Putin the Great Putin. Many people thought Putin was very fierce. I remember a world weekly magazine gave Putin the second most influential person in the world. After fighting Ukraine, he went from being a great emperor to a bunker boy in recent years, and from Putin to Putin. Trump recently threatened to attack Iran. I don't know if he will take action, but people already believe that the US military is leading the world. If it falls into a war and makes people think that the US is just like that, then it is highly likely that the hegemony of the US dollar will also loosen. The US treasury bond of 38.66 trillion yuan has an annual total interest of 1.22 trillion yuan, which is more than the military expenditure of 890 billion dollars and medical insurance of 996.7 billion dollars. The main rigid expenditures in the United States each year are: social security of 1.58 trillion yuan, interest of 1.22 trillion yuan, medical insurance of 996.7 billion yuan, military spending of 890 billion yuan, and medical subsidies of over 600 billion yuan, with a total rigid expenditure of 5.47 trillion yuan. In terms of social security and medical insurance, it is not impossible to cut them. If they are cut too much, it will affect the voter turnout, so politicians dare not cut them. So these years, the US government has been running annual deficits. If ordinary people encounter a debt crisis, they can solve it by eating less and spending less, and by opening up sources and reducing expenses. However, this is different for the United States. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency, so as long as everyone is still in reserve, they have no motivation to repay the money, which is also the source of US dollar hegemony. Trump's recent series of means are like bandits robbing, which may be his open-source strategy. But if we really get into a war and win, everyone thinks it's normal, after all, modern history books have written that the world is in a state of 'one superpower and many strong ones'. War sometimes depends on luck, not just strength. If there is a deadlock or military failure, it means that 'originally, you can't do it either', and then the real crisis of the US dollar will come. If the US dollar collapses, there will be a new currency substitution. But before the substitution, it is estimated that the world is in financial crisis. After all, US debt is called "risk-free interest rate". The US government makes rules to let Wall Street institutions hold US debt. For example, Teda of USDT and crcl, the parent company of USDC, are required to hold a certain amount of treasury bond. Especially some investment banks will be revoked their licenses if they do not hold US debt. When risks arise, when something that everyone thinks is' risk-free 'becomes' risky', it is very frightening. The United States has fallen into a quagmire of war, which is a major change not seen in a century. Therefore, with Trump's wisdom, the best solution may still be to launch surprise attacks and confront each other, with a higher probability of a physical blockade of the Iran Strait. In this way, crude oil prices are likely to rise in the near future, but not too high. If they are too high, the United States will fall into inflation again and can only maintain a profitable range for shale oil without inflation, around 90-110 US dollars. I have to say that Trump is really able to make a living. After he came here, the world has become a more humble and exciting team.