20 years, 312 years, pandemic, US economic recession, sudden increase in unemployment rate to over double digits. Macro analysis of Bitcoin The global financial market fell, and gold was not spared either. BTC fell from a low of $8000 to $3800, and then the Federal Reserve quickly adjusted and lowered interest rates to 0-0.25%, and adopted unconventional measures such as QE to rescue the market The main essence is that it is caused by the economic recession in the United States. This is the last drop that @ Phyrex-Ni Ni Da has been talking about before. The current cycle is experiencing another economic recession in the United States, leading to a sharp increase in unemployment rate. My friends also know that the current unemployment rate is only 4.4, which is not yet in recession. Based on the current situation, if there is a recurrence of 312, which means a recession occurs, it may also be 27 years. 26 years is unlikely, and Trump should also try to delay, if the recession happened this year. Then Trump's mid-term election is not optimistic. By the way, August 5th, 2024 can be considered a small preview of 312. At that time, the release of the unemployment rate triggered the Sam's Law, and then the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at the end of July, causing panic in the US Japan carry trade. It also happened over the weekend, which was considered an expected recession. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, causing a decline in carry trade funds due to panic. However, soon after, Japan corrected that it would not raise interest rates, and with the defensive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, market sentiment immediately rebounded. After this time, many funds involved in the US Japan interest rate swap also underwent risk control, so if Japan raises interest rates again in 25 years and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the impact on the market will not be as significant. By the way, let's talk about the sharp decline of 519 in 2021. Actually, 519 is very similar to 1011 from 25 years ago When the market sentiment is extremely greedy and the open interest contracts reach their peak, the market needs to clear leverage, resulting in a sharp decline. There will definitely be more after this sharp decline. This is just a harvest of extreme greed in the financial market. Therefore, the typical 312 and 519 are both plummeting, but their essence is still different.