Personal blood and tears: In the 2011 crash, I witnessed assets being cut in half with my own eyes The Hunter Brothers' script was performed again in 2011, and I became a witness. On April 25, 2011, silver hit a high point, and my family held multiple orders of physical silver bars and futures with full positions. I thought I could make another profit, but I was stunned by the suspension of trading during the May Day holiday. The overseas market plummeted sharply during the holiday, and the domestic market resumed trading with a low opening circuit breaker - unable to close positions and stop losses, and no one took over the physical silver bars in hand, watching helplessly as the account funds were cut in half. In the end, they had to cut their losses and leave the market. Looking at the skyrocketing prices in 2025-2026 now, the "physical shortage" promoted in the market is just an old trick with a different packaging. As someone who has witnessed three rounds of market trends, I am well aware that physical delivery is never the determining factor for price surges. Truth Analysis: Don't be fooled by the "physical shortage", the ups and downs are all in the futures market Unveil the lie that 'physical objects are not enough' 1. There is no explosive growth in industrial demand: The demand for silver in photovoltaics and new energy vehicles is steadily increasing, which is in line with industry planning and cannot be doubled or tripled in a short period of time. The so-called "gap" is an illusion that has been amplified; 2. Enterprises have already locked in prices for hedging: Silver companies will not bear price fluctuations while producing. For example, photovoltaic companies will lock in the annual purchase price in advance, and the rise in silver prices is not related to production costs; 3. Business operations have not been affected: If there were a shortage of physical goods and price pressure on profits, news of photovoltaic companies shutting down and silver factories closing down should have appeared long ago, but in reality, there was no such thing, indicating stable physical supply and extremely low delivery proportion. The truth of skyrocketing: the "drumming flower" in the futures market The core of the surge in silver is the expected speculation in the futures market: 1. Institutions guide emotions: release the news of "silver will skyrocket", mix some real data, infinitely amplify scarcity, and create a consensus of "buy to earn"; 2. Crazy influx of funds: Taking the previous futures exchange as an example, the trading volume of silver futures surged from 300000 lots to over 1 million lots, and long orders increased by three to four times; 3. Emotions drive up prices: People hold the mentality of "buying today, rising tomorrow" and only buy without selling. Prices are not related to physical supply and demand, but purely a carnival of market emotions. Crash Pushing Hands: The Never Changing 'Combination Fist' The outcome of every round of skyrocketing is a sharp drop, driven by futures institutions (involving government games from various countries), and the methods have remained unchanged for decades: 1. Limit holdings: Cut off the inflow of long funds and cut off the supply to the market. 2. Restrictions on physical delivery: Customers who buy 4 kilograms of silver are required to queue up for pick-up and withdraw in batches (50 grams at a time), which cannot hedge the risk. 3. Increase margin: Mandatory increase from 5% to 15% -20%. Full position investors can either borrow money to supplement margin or be forced to close positions (multiple closing positions refer to selling in large quantities). 4. Stampede style plunge: Concentrated selling triggers an unbeatable market, and the price drops to the bottom within 1-2 days. Risk Warning: Ordinary people should not be the "take over heroes", these pitfalls must be avoided As someone who has been there before, I must remind you that the risk for ordinary people involved in silver speculation is almost 100%: 1. Physical silver is difficult to monetize: During a sharp decline, merchants refuse to accept it, and the price of 15 kilograms of sheet metal drops from 300000 to 150000, but it cannot be sold. 2. Both long and short positions are high-risk: long positions may encounter a circuit breaker style sharp drop, while short positions may be first hit by a surge. 3. News always lags behind: By the time you receive the news of a sharp drop, the market has panicked and sold out, leaving no time to react. 4. The market lacks technicality: all technical analysis and news are fake news guided by institutions, essentially gambling in a casino with rules set by market makers. Conclusion: Respecting the market and staying away from speculation is the way to survive Half a century ago, the Hunter brothers used monopoly to create false shortages, which were ultimately backfired by the market. In 2011, futures speculation harvested individual investors, and family members personally suffered losses. From 2025 to 2026, although some people say 'this is an industry driven value reassessment', the core of the hype has never changed. Capital can manipulate temporary market trends, but it cannot resist market laws. The growth of industrial demand is a fact, but the infinitely amplified "gap" is just a bait for speculators. The 12 years of bloody and tearful lessons have taught me that any surge that deviates from fundamentals will eventually return to its essence, and the ones who pay the price are always ordinary people who follow the trend. If you want to do asset allocation, silver is never a good choice. If we rush into the arena with the mentality of "getting rich overnight", we are likely to repeat the tragedy of the Hunter brothers and my family. Respect the market, adhere to rules, and stay away from silver speculation. This is the most practical advice I can give everyone.