QCP: Bitcoin rebounds to $88000 before oscillating, current market focuses on key events such as Federal Reserve decision

QCP Capital published an analysis stating that Bitcoin rebounded to a price of $88000 after a significant decline earlier this week, which has always been like a trap. When prices have recently fallen, it is often accompanied by a rapid liquidation driven bearish pullback, while a rapid rebound often brings prices back to the normal range. At present, the market is facing multiple key events: the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision today (January 28) Eastern Time, the funding deadline that may trigger a government shutdown on January 30, and the Senate's discussion on the cryptocurrency market structure bill. The options market reflects asymmetric risk, with relatively controlled volatility and a futures premium structure, indicating that market expectations are fluctuating rather than plummeting. However, the left tail risk premium is relatively high, and the skewness remains negative, making the recent trend of option prices more like a hedge against gap risk. In terms of finance, the market is concerned about whether Washington can successfully pass the deadline of January 30th. Reaching an agreement in a timely manner will alleviate the recent risk premium and make cryptocurrency performance closer to the overall market. A brief stalemate may still trigger rapid fluctuations in risk aversion, but once an agreement is reached, these fluctuations will fall back. However, the prolonged stalemate will significantly tighten liquidity and force broader de risking. The more urgent key lies in the Federal Reserve. The basic expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged, and the market's focus is on when interest rate cuts can resume.