qinbafrank|1月 28, 2026 02:24
How is the deployment of the US aircraft carrier in place? What are the key points for following up on the evolution of the situation in Iran? Last night, the United States reported to Israel on the progress of preparations for actions against Iran, with two core points:
1) The relevant preparation work is expected to be completed within two weeks;
2) There may be a 'window of opportunity' for taking action in the coming months.
At the same time, as the US stock market opened last night, there were media reports that Iran had a phone call with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia does not allow its airspace and territory to be used to strike Iran. Both of these factors mean that the probability of making a short-term move is relatively low, which greatly boosts market confidence.
On last Friday and Saturday, you will see a lot of content rendering the atmosphere of a weekend war, without exception because the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier arrived, but many overlooked the fact that the best time for the United States had already passed at that time. The aircraft carrier battle group travels thousands of miles and needs to rest and recuperate after deployment, and it cannot immediately form combat effectiveness. So as we discussed on the 22nd, the probability of the US military taking action last week is extremely low.
Regarding the pace of follow-up actions by the US military?
Is the content reported by the US military to Israel the same as before here https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2014536487891607678? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A talked about something similar: continuing to strengthen military deployment, taking advantage of the fact that there are still some remaining forces in Iran's turmoil, such as Mossad and CIA, to incite and stir up trouble again within Iran. This is the deeper meaning of the "potential window of opportunity for future data" mentioned in the notification.
And as mentioned in last week's tweet, if the US military's actions this time are different from capturing Maduro and bombing Iran's nuclear facilities in June last year: the purpose and intention are important, regime change is not a one-time operation of arresting people and bombing nuclear facilities, unless an opportunity is found to take action against Khamenei later (which is actually the smallest action on the market), the US dollar also needs the best timing.
Looking at Iran's dynamics later, the key point is to see if there will be another internal turmoil in Iran? In this way, for the US military, it is the best time for military deployment to be in place.
On January 13th, here is https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2011055661589568659? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A should be the earliest point on X that the aircraft carrier is not in place and the military deployment is not in place, making it difficult for the US dollar to take action against Iran.
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