Polymarket predicts a 99% probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January

According to data from the Polymarket website, traders expect a probability of approximately 99% for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in its January rate decision. The probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points, a rate cut of 50 basis points, or a rate hike of 25 basis points or more is all less than 1%, and the cumulative trading volume of related contracts exceeds 560 million US dollars. Previously, Federal Reserve officials expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for the first time since three consecutive rate cuts in September last year, and the path to resuming rate cuts is still unclear. AI interpretation: The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is extremely strong, with a 99% probability reflecting investors' confidence in the current economic situation. This data indicates that the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not adopt aggressive monetary policy adjustments in the short term and may continue to observe changes in economic data. The significant increase in trading volume also demonstrates the market's high attention to this decision, further consolidating expectations for the stability of interest rate policies.