The beginning of a new cycle? The proportion of smart money raising funds that steadily increase but slow down in growth rate 」 Continuing the quote below, after a month, I will update you on the latest data on the proportion of 1y-3y today. The power of this cyclical indicator is familiar to my old friends; As the strongest dominant group since the birth of BTC, their fundraising and distribution behavior, Basically completely controlling the bull bear cycle of BTC has given us clear guidance. The indicator in the attached figure is the proportion of market participants holding chips for 1-3 years, Here is a brief review of the concept of this indicator for all new and old friends ： ➡️ Grouping BTC chip holders based on 'holding time' ➡️ Capture chip holders with a holding time between 1y and 3y ➡️ Calculate the proportion of these people in the entire market ➡️ The lower the proportion, the fewer people in this ethnic group, usually caused by selling ➡️ The proportion has bottomed out (distribution completed), corresponding to the bull market peak of BTC ➡️ Peak in proportion (completed fundraising), corresponding to the bear market bottom of BTC For a more complete concept of indicators, please refer to the following link, which provides detailed explanations ： https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/1981535929342054585 // As shown in the attached figure, although the change speed of this indicator is very slow, But we can still clearly see that the proportion of 1y-3y is still steadily increasing According to the strong cyclical pattern of BTC in the past: one ️⃣ The proportion has bottomed out, and the bull market has reached its peak two ️⃣ The price has started to decline and the proportion has started to increase, indicating that the 1y-3y group is starting to attract new investors three ️⃣ The proportion has peaked, indicating that the 1y-3y group has completed fundraising, corresponding to the bottom of the bear market It is worth noting that: I don't know if you have noticed, but compared to every previous cycle, The rhythm of 'proportion bottoming out and then starting to rise' this time is very different from the past, That is: 'The rate of increase in the proportion has slowed down significantly compared to the past.' ‼️」 From the attached image, we can see that: Every time the proportion reaches its bottom and starts to rise, the speed (slope) of the proportion increase is very large, It can even be called a 'nearly 90 degree right angled ascent'; But after the bottom of this cycle, the increase in proportion has been noticeably slower than any previous one. The reasons behind it are mainly related to the following factors: ➡️ Fundamental changes in the structure of market participants: institutions, enterprises Waiting for large participants to enter ➡️ Continuing, the influence of the 1y-3y ethnic group, which previously dominated the cycle, is currently declining // Moreover, if we approach the analysis from another perspective, we can also draw the same conclusion ： In the past, every increase in proportion was accompanied by a continuous decline in prices; But during the past two months of sideways fluctuations (even slight increases), The proportion of 1y-3y still maintains an upward trend, indicating that this group has a significant impact on BTC in the current region, I am interested in buying at the bottom, even if the proportion growth rate is not as fast as that of trading. Have you all noticed? This is confirming with the 'Shallow Bear Script' that I have repeatedly emphasized over the past two months ‼️ Shallow bear bargain hunting script: Extreme deep callback may no longer exist https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/1990232515458879733 Shallow Bear Bottom Picking Series Analysis Posts (Full): Simplified Summary Compilation https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/1994586575015948555 Yes, the Shallow Bear script is challenging the traditional cycle of deep correction, Nowadays, with the gradual development of 1y-3y proportion data, the success rate of Shallow Bear script is also increasing. In fact, as early as April 2025, I proposed the concept prototype of the "new cycle", At that time, I analyzed in detail the "strange situation" after 2021 from the perspective of on chain analysis with everyone, Interested friends can refer to the following link ： Exploring the cyclical nature of BTC's gradual disappearance from the perspective of on chain data https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/1910515596497936757 // Although I don't have a crystal ball, I can't guarantee that the Shallow Bear script will definitely succeed, But as more and more data and signs gradually emerge, If you still insist on judging BTC's future trend through the method of carving boats, That may be somewhat irrational. Indeed, we cannot rule out the possibility of another extreme black swan in the future leading to a deep correction, But if we insist on saying 'there will definitely be black swans in the future' without any conditions to support it, The opportunity cost (upward risk) borne behind will be too high; Everyone wants to buy cheap chips, but what if they are no longer so cheap in the future ❓ Finally, conclude with a sentence from the previous analysis post (quoted below): If the dominant funds in the future market complete a 'baton handover', it may represent: In the future, we don't need to wait until the proportion of 1y to 3y reaches an extremely high level to reach the bottom The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources The latest data update of AVIV Hetmap: Asahi's model still keeps resonance https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2014515275195154834 Periodic Strong Bottom Signal: Analyzing the Market from the Perspective of Stable Coin Supply Ratio https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/1997845820776022303 November's plunge: an unprecedented giant surrender event https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2004367238753919272 BTC Distribution Strength Indicator: Another Friend of Shallow Bear Script https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2010891523362283618 Soul questioning: Is this the middle stage of the bear market's decline https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2011978392116347339 // [Business hours] If you have a lot of U, but don't want to buy at the bottom now .. 」 Let me share with you a great place for financial management: Bitget Wallet on chain financial management ✅ Long term annualization=10%, revenue comes from AAVE+Bitget Wallet long-term subsidies ✅ Stable Coin Wealth Management (USDC), with a minimum deposit of 1 U and support for redemption at any time ✅ Transparent, non collateralized, non revolving loans, maintaining low-risk characteristics Above, interested friends can register with my invitation code below Invitation code: "3jTNi6" (requires manual binding)