Hai Ge observes daily 20260126: core viewpoint The current Bitcoin price has fallen below $88000, with 14 bearish indicators and only 8 bullish indicators out of 32, indicating a significant advantage of bearish forces. The market presents a pattern dominated by "macro suppression+capital outflow", and although the increase in holdings of whales on the chain and some oversold technical signals provide partial support, it is difficult to reverse the trend. My strategy: Strictly control the position to 30%, retain cash, and wait for key support areas to stabilize or macro improvement signals. ✍️ Breaking down the power of long and short positions Short dominant areas (14 items) 1. Macro pressure: Delayed expectations of interest rate cuts, bearish CPI/non farm data, weakened US dollar liquidity, coupled with rising geopolitical risks (such as Japan's bond market turmoil and tariff disputes), suppressing risk asset preferences; 2. Fund outflow: ETFs continue to experience net outflows, while net inflows from exchanges increase selling pressure, and stablecoin growth turns negative, weakening purchasing power; 3. Technical resistance: SMA120 moving average suppression, bearish pressure level ahead, weak price structure, and the $90000 mark has turned into strong resistance; 4. Emotional cooling: Both institutional and individual investors have weak enthusiasm. Long support (8 items) 1. On chain confidence: Giant Whale addresses are increasing their holdings against the trend (bullish on 100+BTC address changes), and long-term chip locking is good; 2. Technical oversold repair demand: VDD warning indicator is bullish, daily RSI is close to oversold area, and there is short-term rebound momentum; 3. Structural opportunity: Bitcoin's market value proportion increases, and funds concentrate on mainstream assets for hedging. Uncertainty (10 items) The market stage, knockoff season index, NUPL profit and loss status and other directions are unclear, indicating that the market is searching for a new equilibrium point. Key signal monitoring 1. Downward risk trigger point: If it falls below 87000 (weekly low), it may explore 84000- $85000 (miner cost zone and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level); Confirmation signal: ETF net outflow for 3 consecutive days+continuous strengthening of the US dollar index DXY. 2. Signals to be observed for rebound: Volume recovery of $89500 (daily mid track) and stabilization, accompanied by a rebound in contract holdings and stabilization of funding rates; Macro improvement: The Federal Reserve releases dovish signals or inflation data falls beyond expectations. 3. Risk of counterfeit currency linkage: If the Shanzhai seasonal index weakens, it is necessary to be vigilant about further withdrawal of funds from small market value assets. Operational framework 1. Position adjustment: The spot position has been reduced to 30%, with 70% cash retained. Clearing leveraged positions to avoid liquidation risks under increased volatility; Core positions (BTC/ETH) are reserved, and all positions in altcoins are closed. 2. Batch bottom reading conditions: Conservative type: Approaching the support zone of 84000-85000 with RSI<30, build positions in batches of 5% (with stop loss set at $82000); Radical type: break through 89500 with a large volume and maintain a stable 4-hour chart. When the retracement is not broken, take a light position and try long (target 92000). 3. Risk control bottom line: A single loss shall not exceed 2% of the total funds; If unable to maintain a stable position of $88000 within 3 days, further reduce the position to 20% to prevent a deep pullback. Summary: The current market is dominated by macro and financial factors leading the decline, but the accumulation of whales on the chain and signals of technical oversold suggest that bulls have not completely given up. Discipline is higher than prediction, and cash is also an important position until key signals are clear. (Note: The viewpoint is strictly based on the status of 32 indicators and does not constitute investment advice.)