An important piece of data: The probability of a US government shutdown has sharply increased from 9% to 78% Polymarket predicts that the probability of another government shutdown in the United States before January 31st has sharply increased from 9% on January 24th to approximately 78%. This change reflects the sudden deadlock in the congressional budget negotiations. The cause was a shooting incident. On January 24th, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, federal ICE immigration enforcement officers shot and killed a 37 year old American citizen named Alex Pretti, who was an intensive care unit nurse, during an operation. This is the second similar incident in the short term that has sparked strong public controversy. The focus of controversy lies in the funding bill currently under review by Congress, which includes a budget of $64.4 billion for the Department of Homeland Security, including $10 billion specifically for ICE to strengthen immigration enforcement, such as arrests and deportations. The Republican Party hopes to pass it as is to support the Trump administration's tough immigration policies; The Democratic Party strongly opposes it, believing that continuing to significantly increase funding after the shooting would encourage excessive law enforcement and even violate human rights. They demand the deletion or restriction of this portion of funds, otherwise they refuse to vote to push the bill forward. This is essentially a two party game. The Republican Party controls the House of Representatives and wants to quickly implement the immigration priority agenda through the budget; Although the Democratic Party is a minority party in the Senate, they have the procedural power to obstruct bills and require 60 votes to force them forward. Both sides are using this mandatory budget as a lever to gain political advantage. The Republican Party is unwilling to show weakness, while the Democratic Party wants to force concessions from the other party while highlighting its image of protecting vulnerable groups. Similar disagreements in history often compromise before the deadline, but this shooting incident has amplified the conflict. Limited impact on the market The experience of more than 20 government shutdowns in history shows that the US stock market is usually subject to short-term uncertainty, with rising volatility and the possibility of a slight correction, but the overall impact is limited. After the shutdown ends, it often rebounds because it does not touch the core of the economy, such as corporate profits or Federal Reserve policies. For encrypted assets, short-term volatility may increase, regulatory bills may be delayed, and institutions may remain on the sidelines, but this will not change the long-term trend, similar to how risk assets often recover quickly after past shutdowns. There are only a few days left until the deadline, and the probability is still fluctuating, which is worth paying attention to.