Murphy|1月 26, 2026 01:15
$87,000-$88,000 is the lower boundary of this range channel, and it's a critical point for BTC's future, at least in terms of mid-term directional choices. If it breaks below, the situation (sentiment) could turn less optimistic.
The loss of the most important support in the chip structure will make LTH price sensitivity higher, pushing investor sentiment from hesitation to disappointment, causing more chips to loosen.
When investor sentiment becomes sensitive, even an insignificant bearish event can further damage the already fragile market confidence.
Don't fall into this negative cycle — this is what I've been most worried about recently (related tweet links below). Bullish news gets ignored, bearish news gets amplified — this is typical bear market sentiment.
The next key level is at 8.2-8.3w. As we analyzed before, if extreme circumstances lead to this range being breached, I personally believe the probability of BTC filling the "gap" below the chip structure will increase significantly.
According to the "dual-anchor structure" principle, the midpoint is around $72,000-$74,000.
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Related tweet links mentioned above:
Understanding cycle transitions through sentiment shifts
https://(((x.com)))/murphychen888/status/2013460047368724844?s=46
Pain transfer, LTH sensitivity spikes
https://(((x.com)))/murphychen888/status/2015002872321282234?s=46
Time is not on the bulls' side
https://(((x.com)))/murphychen888/status/2014518447456276790?s=46
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