Phyrex
Phyrex|Jan 25, 2026 22:21
These recent weekends have been rough, and today’s homework isn’t any easier to deal with. Just finished reading about Greenland’s tariffs, thought I could catch a break, but BTC is dropping again. It already took a big hit over the weekend. This time, there might be three possible reasons behind it. First, Trump is extremely unhappy with a trade agreement between Canada and China. I mentioned this yesterday, but today Trump posted two more articles warning Canada. When it comes to using tariffs as a weapon, Trump never holds back. So, the market is worried about whether Canada and China might join forces to resist on Monday. Even though it’s just talk for now, if it really turns into “confrontation,” the market will definitely react to the potential risks. And while there’s a chance TACO might happen, the market won’t just sit idly by. Besides tariffs, there’s also the possibility of the U.S. and Japan teaming up to intervene in the yen exchange rate. Although it’s not as serious as tariffs, such intervention could impact the arbitrage market, especially since the yen is such a sensitive borrowing asset. The third issue is that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown has increased again. The budget expiring on January 31st is causing problems. Currently, Kalshi’s forecast for a shutdown probability has surged to 78.5%. However, this time the shutdown might not be as comprehensive as the one last October. Some government departments have already secured full-year budgets and won’t be affected. So relatively speaking, even if a shutdown happens, it shouldn’t be on a larger scale compared to October. Looking back at Bitcoin’s data, the turnover rate has increased. Such a high turnover rate over the weekend shows that the market is already panicking. With these three layers of bearish factors, investors are probably losing their minds. And this is all happening over the weekend, before the U.S. stock market even opens. In just a few hours, we’ll see how Asian investors react, followed by the U.S. investors. Honestly, I’m feeling pretty frustrated. Tariffs have been repeatedly used by Trump as a weapon, and the results are never good. Seeing the market react poorly, Trump might TACO again. What’s the point? @bitget VIP, lower fees, crazier perks.
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