[a16z: Prediction market adjudication mechanisms act as 'judge, jury, and executioner,' facing bottlenecks in contract settlement determination] BlockBeats News, January 25, a16z Crypto published a long article titled 'What to Do When Prediction Markets Fail.' It stated that the hardest problem in prediction markets is not pricing the future but determining what actually happened. One of the biggest bottlenecks in the scaled development of prediction markets is 'how contracts are settled.' At the beginning of the year, Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by the U.S. military, while Polymarket denied that Venezuela had been invaded, ruling the 'U.S. invasion of Venezuela' market as a no, sparking widespread controversy. Polymarket later explained that 'the market referred to U.S. military actions aimed at establishing control, and the raid to capture Maduro and subsequent evacuation cannot be considered an invasion.' a16z Crypto commented that prediction markets are facing a tricky situation: should the execution of prediction contracts follow official information (Maduro's victory) or the consensus of credible reports (the opposition's victory)? In this political drama, Polymarket's dispute resolution mechanism simultaneously acted as 'judge, jury, and executioner,' with the adjudication of contract settlements being heavily manipulated.