qinbafrank|1月 25, 2026 08:24
After a month, the Japanese yen and Japanese long-term bond yields have once again affected the market, and the United States and Japan have joined forces to intervene in the exchange rate. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting in December, the exchange rate of the dollar and yen has been improving all the way, reaching a peak of 160 this week. At the same time, the yield of Japan's 30-year treasury bond has also reached a historical high of 3.76%. The position of the US Japan exchange rate of 160 is basically the psychological defense line of the Japanese Finance Agency and the Bank of Japan, while the 30-year Japanese treasury bond bond yield surge has become more attractive for funds, which has aroused the vigilance of the United States.
So this Friday, due to the official exchange rate checks by the US and Japan, the Japanese yen rose by about 2% against the US dollar, while the Nikkei index futures fell by about 2% accordingly.
Japanese Prime Minister Hayao Takashi made it clear during today's party leadership televised debate that although the Prime Minister should not comment on market determined matters, the government "will take all necessary measures to address speculative and extremely abnormal fluctuations". Although she did not specify whether she was targeting bond yields or exchange rates, this statement comes at a time when Japanese bond yields are rising and the yen is under sustained pressure, reinforcing expectations of official intervention. Although there is no clear evidence to support the official intervention of the US and Japan in the exchange rate.
But the intervention of the New York Fed on Friday sparked speculation in the market about a "joint intervention": the Fed's action means that potential intervention will no longer be unilateral, which has led to accelerated liquidation of yen shorts and also raised concerns about the potential impact of intervention on the US stock market. In history, such exchange rate checks have always been seen as warning signals from governments to traders, usually occurring when volatility increases and verbal intervention fails.
This move has clearly raised concerns among Japanese exporters and the dynamics of arbitrage trading in the United States. We also need to pay attention to whether there are further official actions in the future. If there are follow-up intervention measures tomorrow morning and Monday, it will further support the yen.
And it will enhance the market's risk aversion sentiment, which may bring pressure to the US stock and cryptocurrency markets, so attention should be paid.
Why can the United States cooperate with Japan this time? From a personal perspective, the US Treasury Department is also worried that the volatility of the Japanese treasury bond bond market may spill over from the US treasury bond bond market. To put it simply, the US Treasury Department is worried about withdrawing funds from US bonds to buy Japanese bonds, further pushing up US bond yields.
If the US and Japan cooperate to intervene in the exchange rate next week, the market volatility will be very large. And next week, there will be several heavyweight technology stock financial reports, which will amplify macro events, important financial reports, and market fluctuations. From a trading perspective, it is suitable to use the @ Bitgetzh US stock contract for trading.
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