Every BTC spent will 'destroy' its accumulated holding time (CDD); The longer the coin remains inactive and moves, the larger the CDD becomes; In order to minimize the interference of internal transfer and noise behavior in the exchange, we process the original CDD, not by looking at "how big it is on a certain day", but only by looking at "whether it is higher than the long-term average"; Above the mean, denoted as 1; Less than the mean, denoted as 0. Therefore, the orange line in the graph represents the proportion of long-term holders who have made frequent moves in the past month; When the orange line approaches 1, it indicates that all the old coins have been spent during this period, and the behavior of long-term holders is abnormally active; If the orange line is close to 0, most of the time, the old currency remains stationary. (Figure 1) And long-term holders have become active, meaning they are distributing chips to short-term holders (new buyers); Therefore, if we understand it from another perspective, the rise of the orange line corresponds to the emergence of new demand; The orange line is declining, and demand is also shrinking synchronously. From historical data, the surge in new demand will only occur in two time periods: 1. during bull market sentiment FOMO; 2. During a sharp decline or bear market bottom; For example, during the period of October to November in 2025, the highest AD-CDD reached 0.86, indicating a large distribution by long-term holders and corresponding funds continuously entering the market to buy the bottom, but the price continued to decline, indicating that supply exceeded demand. Afterwards, as BTC sideways consolidated between 8.5-8.9w, the orange line began to rapidly decline and demand quickly retreated. At present, the orange line is around 0.2, which is basically in line with the standards of bear market sentiment. Throughout history, when the Orange Line was at a low level, BTC prices performed very weakly, and the underlying logic is as described above. Therefore, to stimulate a surge in demand again, there are only two possibilities: 1. The price has broken through the previous high, and the market sentiment is sluggish, returning to the peak of the bull market; 2. Continuing to explore, more cost-effective prices emerged, attracting demand and gradually forming a new bottom consensus. No matter how long BTC will experience consolidation and walk out of a boring garbage period, the ultimate turning point will inevitably be the above two points, and there is no third possibility. Because the only thing that determines prices is the change in the "supply and demand relationship" - strong supply creates a bull's peak, while strong demand creates a bear's bottom. If it doesn't work once, then try again until one side subdues the other! ---------------------------------------------- Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits