Trump's Burden - His Timing Might Match Herbert Hoover's - Some 2026 outlooks: - A third down year for the S&P 500 since 2008 - Bitcoin toward $50,000 - WTI crude oil toward $40 - Copper toward $4 - T-bond yields below 4% - Corn $3.50 - Multiyear highs for metals, notably silver and potentially gold Indications of wrong: - Bitcoin stays above $100,000 - Copper stays above $6 - T-Bonds stay above 5% (this could be a lose-lose) - S&P 500 volatility stays buried Some reasons: - Consensus is run it hot into mid-terms, which means sticky inflation -- a top issue in elections favoring democrats - S&P 500 180-day volatility has to stay buried at 11.7% -- or else. The 10-year average is 17% and volatility is always mean reverting - Strategy Inc. peaked on July 16, Bitcoin on Oct. 6, the Nasdaq 100 on Oct. 29 - Gold and silver have never rallied at such high-velocity with stock market volatility, inflation and crude oil as buried Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t0gu4ogpqqbl {BI COMD} #gold #bitcoin #stockmarket #crudeoil(Mike McGlone)