灯塔说
灯塔说|Jan 24, 2026 08:27
Let's talk about the overall market: Since the gradual shift from "predictive trading" to "intraday triggered trading", subjective predictive analysis has become increasingly rare. The market signals, I follow; No, just wait. But the market has been quite sluggish these days—— The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has significantly cooled down due to repeated fluctuations, low volatility, and scattered attention on memes, gold and silver, and US stocks. In my free time, let's briefly talk about my views on the overall market. Let's start with the conclusion: The long-term bullish trend at the weekly level of Bitcoin has not been disrupted, and I still have a positive outlook on the future direction. But the previous strong bull market was indeed hit by the 'pause button', which needs to be clarified first. Structurally speaking: The daily chart level is within the adjustment cycle, and recently it seems more like it is being organized within a platform range It is still uncertain whether this platform is the relay of a new trend downward trend, Still preparing for the second bull run in the future, it is a stop loss and fundraising area How to determine the mid-term direction in the short term? I will focus on the weekly closing situation for the next two weeks: If the weekly chart closes below 88K and the rebound is weak, That's more like the beginning of a new round of decline, focus on the 85K-78K range If the weekly chart can remain above 95K and cannot be broken by retracement, If the strong rebound structure is basically confirmed, the target will look back at 100K-1005K At this stage, to put it simply, we can only follow and not predict. Based on past market trading experience: If this market trend shows a rapid downward trend and breaks through 75K before quickly withdrawing, That would be a very beautiful mid-term buying point and a signal that I have been focusing on. As for whether to give or not, we can only follow fate. Because each bottom has both periodicity and randomness - sometimes, one event is enough to ignite a mid-term market trend. Let's talk about the recent decline: The process of falling from a high level to 89-88K is very urgent, and the selling is indeed heavy, but the price has never effectively fallen below - every time it hits around 88K, it will be quickly absorbed, which is not the behavior of individual investors. The conclusion is simple: there are funds slowly being raised here. Short term strategy: Continue to operate within the range - go long when the decline approaches the lower edge of the range, and try to short when the rebound is near the key clearing level. Medium to long term: patiently wait for direction confirmation, Wait until the price reaches a buying area where you feel truly comfortable and have sufficient certainty before making a move. Let's chat a few times, If you have different opinions, please feel free to leave a message and communicate together. BTC
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