My friend thinks that there is not a clear positive correlation between the stock of Bitcoin exchanges and price trends. Apart from the reason explained by Ni Da, I think there is another factor, which is the wide coverage. These stocks are distributed on different exchanges, and their attributes are also different. For example, Kraken's address is closely related to the addresses of several major market makers, and their balance changes are often not closely related to prices. For example, Coinbase, as the vast majority of ETF custodial wallets are located at their home, transferring from the exchange address to the custodial address does not actually result in a transfer, but the system completes the delivery. However, Glassonde data shows a decrease in balance. If we narrow down the scope and only look at Binance's balance, we can make different discoveries: at least in the past 2 years, there has been a frequent correlation between Bitcoin's balance and price on Binance. When the balance rises rapidly in the short term, the price performance is often not ideal (the following chart is not the latest). This indicates that there is a strong correlation between the balance changes in Binance and the supply and demand relationship on the exchange, which should include more real spot trading behavior.