Analysis suggests that Bitcoin prices may face long-term consolidation risks

Analysts such as Glassnode have pointed out that the current price structure of Bitcoin is relatively fragile and may enter a long-term consolidation phase. At present, the price of Bitcoin is limited by a wide range between the short-term holder cost base of $98400 and the real market average of $81100. If key support levels are not effectively recovered, the market may repeat the long-term consolidation pattern of the first quarter of 2022. On chain data shows that there is a dense supply area above $100000, and sustained selling pressure may limit prices from breaking through the $98400 and $100000 thresholds. The risk indicator has risen to 21, approaching high-risk areas, indicating that the current macro environment has high risks. In addition, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced three consecutive days of net outflows, with a single day outflow of $708.7 million on Wednesday, the largest in two months and the fifth largest outflow since its launch in January 2024. Analysis suggests that this reflects that institutions are significantly reducing their risk exposure. If the support level of $84000 is breached, the price may further decline.