Markets are focused on incoming Core PCE inflation data today, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge. The releases refer to both October and November due to delays caused by last autumn’s government shutdown. A 0.3%+ Core PCE print would be seen as hawkish, pushing back rate-cut expectations, while 0.1–0.2% would support a more dovish outlook and keep cuts on the table. The Fed is currently expected to pause at the next meeting, with markets pricing in only a 5% probability of a rate cut.(Gert van Lagen)