The big shot said it's not surprising that Bitcoin fell to $20000, and I asked for the reason Yesterday, I had a chat with a Bitcoin expert for a while and got some amazing insights - although I don't fully agree, I also think his research is very in-depth. It's okay to share it as a reference and also want to hear everyone's opinions. This big shot is not the type of person who relies heavily on luck for their money, but rather a highly recognized cutting-edge investor. He has now sold over 80% of his Bitcoin and only kept 20%, which is probably negligible compared to his wealth. He mentioned two reasons: One reason is that Bitcoin has lost its most important "anti fiat" feature and has become a part of US dollar assets Originally, Bitcoin was against fiat currency, but now Bitcoin has been tied to the United States and the US dollar by Wall Street. No one can say that Bitcoin is American, technically and emotionally, but in fact, that's what happened. He mentioned that the current global macro environment is that the United States is promoting America First and the US dollar and US debt first, and their biggest goal to consolidate is the position of the United States and the US dollar. Bitcoin and blockchain are also part of this grand strategy, whether it's the Genius Act or the recently passed CLARITY Act, especially the recent statement by the United States that the confiscated assets will be used as national reserves - all of which point to the US recognition of Bitcoin and support for blockchain. But this kind of support actually has both advantages and disadvantages. Everyone has seen the good aspects, but the downside is becoming increasingly apparent - Bitcoin is losing its core and most important independence against global fiat currencies. China and Russia will not buy Bitcoin, but only gold. Only the United States and its allies will support it, but in the eyes of American allies, Bitcoin is similar in nature to all US dollar assets, but with greater risks, so there is even less reason to hold it. Even almost all states in the United States have already opposed Bitcoin as a national reserve. He said that on the blockchain data, Wall Street is constantly buying Bitcoin, including micro strategies, but the more they buy, the greater the impact on Bitcoin's independence. The biggest market maker of Bitcoin is the United States, and the disadvantages outweigh the benefits. Nowadays, global geopolitical risks are increasing, and Denmark, an ally of the United States, has also sold its US bonds. The United States is fighting a dangerous but must not lose global financial war. If it loses this battle, US bonds will collapse and the US dollar credit system will go bankrupt - in the current context, the capital betting on "US Bitcoin" will become increasingly scarce. This is also why we often see large funds selling Bitcoin and becoming increasingly resolute, because Bitcoin has lost its greatest function as a "counter fiat currency" and has instead become a part of the US dollar - leading to the worst-case scenario: even those who are bullish on the United States do not need to buy Bitcoin, the highest risk asset, and can choose to invest in US stocks, which have higher liquidity and certainty. Secondly, the computing power of the entire network is shifting towards AI AI is an unprecedented event that will change human history, 100 times greater and 100 times faster than the Industrial Revolution. Many mining plants can already switch to data centers at any time. The short-term returns of building data centers are higher than those of Bitcoin, and in the long run, they are more likely to be much higher, especially for those listed on the US stock market. Building data centers and reaping the benefits of AI is a long and steep track, so many people are going to build data centers. The computing power of Bitcoin has decreased by nearly 20% in recent months, and the difficulty of mining has been lowered for the seventh time, which means that there are fewer people mining and the coins are easier to mine. He said that the latest mining machine has a mining cost of over 30000 yuan, and as computing power continues to decline, it is not surprising that the cost has dropped to over 20000 yuan. Moreover, these transformed mining enterprises also need to sell a large amount of coins to cope with the capital support for transformation. Considering previous mining accidents, it is not surprising that the price dropped below the shutdown price. He asked me, isn't buying micro strategies when the cryptocurrency industry is bullish on Bitcoin now? He can't turn back, is he the most correct one in the world? I am speechless; He also said that now ETH has risen from 800 to 3000, isn't it because TOMLEE and Yilihua are buying and shouting to get it up? Are they necessarily the two most correct? I am also speechless. Finally, he said that back then, these geeks bought Bitcoin because it was against fiat currency, but now that it is so deeply tied to the US dollar, they feel that it is not as fun as before. With so many good assets in the world, it is no longer as sexy. **** After chatting, I thought about it all night last night, but I didn't think it would be difficult to drop to 20000 or even 60000. However, the extreme situation he mentioned doesn't mean it won't happen 100%? Listen to everyone's opinions.