Which is the best risk market indicator for gold and US bonds? Besides Sister Rabbit, there are many other friends who believe that gold is a reference. Let me share my purely personal opinion: 1. Gold is a safe haven asset that reflects market sentiment. If gold rises, it indicates unstable market sentiment and funds seek safe haven. This statement is not entirely correct. From the comparison chart, it can be clearly seen that although gold occasionally deviates from the S&P 500, most of the time gold and the S&P 500 have been rising for a long time. Although the logic of the rise may be different, it does not necessarily mean that the rise of gold is necessarily a decline in the US stock market. Especially at this stage, I still remember in March last year, EVA @ EvanMatrixdock and I both believed that the target for gold in the next three years was $4800, but today this price has been achieved, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also set new highs. Now, gold has shown FOMO sentiment, not entirely for safe haven purposes. If you really want to find a benchmark, the best choice should be US bonds. 2-year US bonds are like the Fed's path ontology, while 10-year US bonds are more like the discount rate anchor for risk assets. The US Treasury corresponds to the market's pricing of the Fed's future path, whether future interest rates will be higher and longer or enter a rate cut channel. At the same time, bonds also combine inflation expectations, real interest rates, and term premiums. The reason why this is more suitable as a reference than gold is that gold is often the outcome variable. Gold can rise when the US dollar is weak, rise when real interest rates fall, rise when liquidity is abundant, and rise when geopolitical conflicts arise. It is difficult to use gold to infer what the market is trading next. But US Treasury bonds are different, especially 10-year bonds, which are more driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, persistent inflation stickiness, or fiscal and bond supply pushing up the maturity premium. 3. The current tariffs are no longer as simple as trade frictions, but are being used as a combination of geopolitical tools, inflation tools, and fiscal tools. In this case, the rise in gold cannot be automatically explained as a reduction in risk appetite, as tariffs are essentially like adding a layer of tax to the global supply chain, and the market will trade two lines at the same time, one on the inflation side and the other on the growth side. And both of these lines will eventually return to 10-year US bonds. If we see more of the upward trend in 10-year US bonds coming from real interest rates or term premiums, then it is even less friendly to the risk market. If the decline in 10-year US Treasury bonds is more due to weak growth and expectations of interest rate cuts, it may actually be beneficial for risk assets in the short term. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits