Discussion post: Everyone says that gold keeps breaking new highs in chaotic order, but BTC is digital gold. Why hasn't Bitcoin risen? Let's start with the conclusion: Actually, the main reason is that Bitcoin has not yet arrived, rather than losing the characteristics of digital gold! My idea is: In the past decade or so, gold and BTC have gone through two completely different "pricing channels" under the same macro narrative! I wrote last time: one ️⃣ Gold is a character: When risk aversion, political uncertainty increases, and the credit system is doubted, the market will consider it as "insurance"; For example, at present, Trump's tariff policies and foreign attitudes, as well as the increasing instability caused by high global debt and deficits, have made gold not only the best choice for ordinary people, but also for countries. two ️⃣ Numbers are an attribute: The scarcity of BTC, its inability to be freely issued, and its lack of sovereignty are indeed 'like gold'. But the reality is that BTC is currently being traded by the market more as a "high volatility risk asset/long-term asset" rather than "insurance". In addition, after being traded through ETFs, a larger proportion of Bitcoin comes from trading/leverage/ETF fund sentiment, which makes it sensitive to risk appetite. So when the macro shifts from an "inflation/easing narrative" to a "risk event/deleveraging narrative," there will be differentiation, and when the market enters a short-term "deleveraging/deleveraging" phase, BTC will be the first to be hit. If an asset fluctuates too much or has too much uncertainty, people will not consider it a safe haven asset. Safe haven assets require higher consensus. three ️⃣ Who is buying Bitcoin and who is buying gold? The most important factors in the short term are: who is buying (marginal buyers), how much to buy, and whether or not to buy. 1) Marginal buyers of gold: Official/central bank+large institution "safe haven allocation" is a unique "super buying" of gold. The data from the World Gold Council shows that central banks will still be net buyers in November 2025 (for example, mentioning net purchases of 45 tons and significant cumulative purchases during the year), and listed the continued increase in holdings by central banks in Poland, Brazil, and other countries. This type of buying has two characteristics: Not chasing the rise and killing the fall (more strategic/reserve reallocation); Large scale and strong sustainability ("national balance sheet" behavior). 2) Marginal buyers of BTC: Venture capital/institutional product funds+leveraged traders Of course, BTC also has "structured funds" (such as some companies continuing to buy). However, even if companies like Strategy continue to buy large amounts of BTC in the short term, BTC still falls, indicating that short-term prices will still be suppressed by "macro risk appetite/deleveraging". And strategy and national size cannot be compared. In the marginal buyer structure of BTC, the proportion of "withdrawn funds" is higher: Funds pursuing high volatility returns; Institutional positions that require control over drawdown/volatility; Derivative leveraged positions (risk control triggers passive reduction). This explains the core differentiation: gold receives structural buying support when "risk rises"; BTC was systematically reduced by the risk budget when the risk increased. four ️⃣ The blind spot of digital gold metaphor: scarcity ≠ safe haven attribute (especially in the short term) Many people understand "digital gold" as follows: fiat currency credit is diluted → gold rises → BTC should also rise. This reasoning is missing two steps: 1) From "credit dilution" to "price increase", a "transmission mechanism" is needed in between The transmission mechanism of gold is very direct: central banks/sovereign funds can legitimately hold it; It is part of the traditional reserve asset system; The volatility is relatively lower, more like 'insurance'. The transmission mechanism of BTC is more complicated: it is currently difficult for the sovereign/central bank system to treat BTC as a core reserve asset (compliance, accounting, regulation, political risk, volatility are not matched); Due to its high volatility, it is more like an option/growth asset betting on future changes in the monetary system, rather than an insurance. 2) In risk shocks, the market will prioritize cashing out "insurance" rather than "options": This is the key point, when the market enters a risk off: "insurance" (gold) is sought after; Options (BTC, a highly volatile asset) are often sold first to exchange for cash/reduce volatility. That is to say, the short-term pricing power is still in the hands of "risk appetite/liquidity/risk control constraints", while Bitcoin is currently in the market and not classified as an "insurance" category. five ️⃣ This is not the bankruptcy of 'digital gold', but rather the misuse of 'digital gold' as a 'short-term safe haven asset' In conclusion, I think a more accurate statement would be: Gold equals insurance; BTC is a long-term option on future changes in the monetary system. But over time, they solve different levels of the same problem. Gold is a slow variable in the national balance sheet, while BTC is a fast variable in the reconstruction of the individual and capital system. What I mean is: the market's positioning of Bitcoin is not accurate enough, and it will take time to prove something. What I want to say is: Bitcoin in the future will definitely be better than gold!