大漂亮| C Labs
大漂亮| C Labs|1月 20, 2026 23:22
Today, the US stock market, US bond market, and cryptocurrency market experienced a simultaneous sharp decline! The reason is that the Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension announced its withdrawal from the US treasury bond bond market, and its chief investment officer made it clear that the US "is basically no longer a good credit target". Although the amount involved in this exit is not large, only about $100 million in US Treasury bonds, the political and financial signals are extremely strong. This is the first time that European institutions have publicly questioned the creditworthiness of US bonds, indicating that the discussion has escalated from a "political protest" to an "asset allocation level". And financial markets are extremely sensitive to precedents. According to TIC data from the US Treasury Department, foreign investors hold approximately $30.9 trillion worth of US securities, with the European public and private sectors accounting for a high proportion of nearly $10 trillion.   These funds are mainly concentrated in US treasury bond bonds, US stocks (especially large technology stocks) and direct investment in the US.   Europe has long been a stable buyer of US bonds and an important support for the high valuation of US stocks. Therefore, in the global capital structure, Europe constitutes one of the most critical and systematic capital suppliers to the United States.   Of course, Europe's counterattack does not mean radical selling, but as long as it does not continue to buy, or no rolling reinvestment after the expiration of treasury bond, it can let demand naturally shrink; Another way is to lower the allocation ratio of US stocks in European sovereign funds, represented by the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund and the Swiss National Bank, which have long been important allocators of US assets.   These European funds have a huge scale, long allocation cycles, and highly concentrated positions in US bonds and large technology stocks. This type of fund does not need to be 'sold', as long as the reinvestment is slowed down, the weight is lowered, and the allocation is postponed, the market will immediately feel the change.   Therefore, although Europe's military readiness is currently relaxed, weaponizing capital, namely "selling America," has become the ultimate option for Europe to counter the Greenland crisis.   And Europe is also well prepared. In December 2023, the EU passed the Anti Coercion Instrument, which has never been used yet but is clearly positioned as the EU's "last resort" to deal with external economic coercion, and can be called "economic nuclear deterrence".   Its strength lies in its ability to directly implement countermeasures against third countries without relying on WTO procedures, covering key areas such as investment, financial services, market access, and public procurement, and for the first time institutionalizing finance and capital flows into the countermeasure toolbox.   Last week, French President Macron publicly stated that if the United States imposes tariffs on EU countries, it will request the activation of ACI.   Of course, the EU has repeatedly reiterated that ACI is only a deterrent tool, and its success lies in not requiring actual use.   If Trump's demands remain at the level of "complete control" without involving sovereignty, Europe still has room for negotiation and compromise; Once the territorial annexation at the sovereignty level is upheld, the political game will quickly escalate.   However, Trump's negotiation strategy has always been like this, starting with a very "outrageous" demand such as annexing Greenland, and then proposing other demands, the resistance to passage will be very low~ Now the big shots are arguing in Davos. The 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (also known as the Winter Davos Forum) will open on January 19, 2026 (Monday) in Davos, Switzerland and will continue until January 23, 2026 (Friday). I just finished tearing it off the next day, and I hope they can come up with a good result this week.
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