Polymarket data shows that only 17% of users predict that the European tariff threat will take effect

Polymarket data shows that only 17% of users believe that all tariffs threatened by Trump on Europe will take effect on February 1st, reflecting the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading strategy, where investors bet that Trump will eventually abandon the tariff threat. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid stated that there is still greater room for market volatility and mentioned that the market has suffered losses due to overreacting to tariff threats. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan believes that the market is performing rationally and bond investors do not seem to take these threats too seriously.