Wintermute: The four-year cycle is dead, what will drive the bull market in 2026? What happened in 2025? The emergence of ETFs and DAT companies has rendered the transmission mechanism of BTC pull, Ethereum pull, mainstream coin pull, and altcoin pull ineffective Chives' roots cut off, leaving to embrace the stock market The average rebound time for altcoins in 2025 is 20 days, which is lower than the 60 days in 2024 (narrative switching is extremely fast, late entry or no jumping projects are yours) If you want to walk the cow in 2026, you need to meet at least one of the following three conditions 1. ETFs and DAT expand their investment scope The comprehensive recovery of the market requires expanding the investable scope of institutions. For example, through ETFs of SOL and XRP. That's just a positive for these tokens that have the ability to make ETFs, but it doesn't necessarily mean they will rise. Just take a look at the ETH ETF. Investment is a lengthy process. ） 2. Mainstream assets lead the rise The strong rebound of Bitcoin or Ethereum may generate wealth effects, which could spill over to a wider market, similar to the situation in 2024. But there is still uncertainty about how much capital will ultimately flow back into the digital asset field. (I see that Ethereum staking has reached a historic high. Only reverse investment can yield excess returns. I think being able to do well in mainstream assets is enough.) 3. Focus Regression Retail investors' focus may shift from the stock market (artificial intelligence, rare earths, quantum computing) to cryptocurrencies, leading to new capital inflows and stablecoin minting. (This is impossible, a pipe dream) Looking at it, I think Wintermute is also very pessimistic. GG