Analysis: The recovery of the cryptocurrency market in 2026 requires ETF expansion, market leading gains, or individual investors' attention returning According to Wintermute's analysis, the traditional "four-year cycle" of the cryptocurrency market has expired, and the market performance in 2025 marks the industry's transition from speculation to mature asset classes. The market will show extreme concentration in 2025. The Bitcoin ETF and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) form a "capital siege" that provides sustained demand for large cap assets, but capital has not naturally rotated to a wider market. According to its over-the-counter trading data, the wealth transmission effect from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and then to blue chip and altcoins, will significantly weaken in 2025. The average rebound period of altcoins has been shortened from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days. The report points out that in order to break through concentration in the market in 2026, at least one of the following three conditions needs to be met: 1. ETF and DAT expand investment scope: Currently, new liquidity is still trapped in institutional channels, and its investable scope needs to be expanded. ETF applications for SOL and XRP have shown early signs. 2. Strong rise in market assets: The strong rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum may generate wealth spillover effects, driving a broader market. 3. Return of Retail Attention: Retail attention has shifted from current hot stock market themes such as AI and rare earths to the cryptocurrency field, bringing new funds and stablecoin minting. The market direction in 2026 will depend on whether the above catalysts can truly guide liquidity beyond a few large cap assets.