Garrett Jin from Giant Whale: There is a fundamental difference between the current Bitcoin market and 2022, and it is too early to be bearish at this time Suspected "1011 insider whale" Garrett Jin posted on X platform that comparing the current Bitcoin market to 2022 is extremely unprofessional. He believes that there are essential differences between the two from the perspectives of long-term price structure, macro background, investor composition, and chip distribution. He pointed out that the current macro environment is completely opposite to the high inflation rate hike cycle in 2022: the situation in Ukraine is easing, CPI and risk-free interest rates are declining, especially the AI technology revolution is likely to drive the economy into a long-term deflation cycle, interest rates have entered the stage of interest rate cuts, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, which defines the risk preference behavior of capital. Since 2020, there has been a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and CPI year-on-year changes, and long-term deflation is a high probability outcome under the AI driven technological revolution. In terms of technical structure, 2021-2022 is a weekly M-top structure, while 2025 is the breakthrough level of the uptrend channel, which is more likely to be a "bear market trap" before the rebound in probability. He pointed out that in order to reproduce the bear market of 2022, strict conditions such as the recurrence of inflation shocks, the resumption of central bank interest rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and a decisive price drop below $80850 need to be met at the same time. It is too early to be bearish before these conditions are met. In terms of investor structure, 2020-2022 is a high leverage speculative market dominated by retail investors. However, since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in 2023, structured long-term holders have entered the market, effectively locking in supply and significantly reducing trading speed and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a completely different asset. The current market has entered a more mature era of institutionalization, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked in supply, and institutional level volatility.