Delphi's article is very interesting, especially the first and third points The first point it predicts is the perpetuity of options, which I think is the most worth discussing If you entered the industry during the Defi Summer era or even earlier, you should know that the "on chain options" track may be one of the few that we have repeatedly failed and fought in. On chain perpetual contracts have experienced the development of DYDX-GMX Hyperliquid, which can be considered as breaking through the encirclement Chain options - Countless options have been born in the past five or six years, but none of them can be exercised. Option trading is mainly concentrated in Deribit, and Binance OK barely accounts for some volume. In other words, options are still stuck in the earliest DYDX era, without even reaching the GMX progress bar And now the prediction market has changed all of this, or it can be said that pure on chain options can never be achieved. The future prosperity on the chain will be the "pseudo options" that predict the market Looking into the reasons, besides liquidity, the threshold for understanding and mastering options is still too high. After Defi Summer, in order to understand this thing, I specifically went to Deribit to play, and after studying for a few days, I just found out the key. At that time, I was at least a Degen, and the experience for novice and novice users can be imagined And as Deribit wrote in the original text - 'Perpetual contracts simplify derivatives by canceling expiration dates. The same logic can be applied to options in the predictive market.' (Cancelling the 'complex parameters' of options) The prediction market of whether the closing price of Bitcoin on June 30th will be higher than $150000 is essentially a cash settled binary option. There's nothing complicated, Greeks、IV、 The term structure is simply a question of 'Will it happen?' with a probability of 0-100%, which anyone can understand. Will the disguised perpetual options in the prediction market completely replace traditional and complex options? Probably not, because the target audience is fundamentally different Taking Duan Yongping's well-known method of selling Put to buy Apple stocks as an example, compared to hanging a Limit Order, selling Put is obviously a more high-quality and advanced gameplay Apple has fallen from $280 to $255 recently, and you don't think it will fall below $200 even if it falls further. After all, it has partnered with Google's Gemini and Siri is about to become stronger, so you have three choices 1. Hang a Limit Order for 200 and take it when it arrives. Anyway, the price is satisfactory 2. Sell a 200 Put like Duan Yongping, and if it doesn't fall to 200, I'll earn the option premium. If it falls, I'm willing to accept it at this price, and I'll earn an additional option premium than Method 1 3. Find a market forecast, such as "Will Apple's closing price on June 30, 2026 fall below $200", and bet directly on Yes/No You see, obviously 1 is the choice of most ordinary traders, 2 is a professional trader, and 3 is someone who has opinions but does not want to learn derivatives. There may be some overlap with 1, but the overlap with 2 should not be significant And the results of different choices are completely different. In option 2, what you get is an asset (Apple's stock), not a zero return lottery, which has value as a fallback. However, if the prediction market makes a wrong judgment, the principal can be directly reset to zero without any "acceptance price" The direction of 2 can actually be further discussed, for example, selling Put is often not simply about adding an option premium to the pending order, or even betting on the price of the pending order. But rather sell a probability that you think is overvalued - "The market believes the probability of falling below X is P, but I think the real probability is<P, Or even if it really happens, my loss is acceptable. ”So its essence is to sell overvalued emotions to others during market panic or greed. Interested friends can research it themselves, so I won't add space here In short, Duan Yongping's selling of options is essentially using asset value as a bottom line and selling the probability of emotions. And predicting the market is treating probability itself as a commodity, making options perpetual The former is stable in 'having assets', while the latter is fast in' information itself '. So I completely agree with Delphi's judgment on option perpetuity, which is a huge supplement to the current centralized complex options As for the on chain native risk market, I feel that both the market and liquidity are not very good. The essence of this thing is the insurance projects we previously developed on various chains. At that time, it was called the last piece of puzzle in Defi, and many versions were iterated. Until now, it is basically a team ending rhythm, so I reserve different opinions I quite agree with the third point of Unbundling, which is the deconstruction of the current prediction market and the opportunities for vertical segmentation. Just as we had various Dex and then the 1-inch aggregator, we transitioned from Dexscrener to GMGN and Axiom with Pumpfun. It is highly likely that the prediction market will also have its own 1-inch, GMGN, including the social and entertainment oriented long tail prediction market that I often mentioned before, and Delphi has also mentioned it I recently talked about two projects, one that has the potential to develop towards GMGN in the prediction market, and the other that I currently see as the best combination of social and prediction markets. After waiting for these two projects to come out in a while, I will share with everyone