Let's briefly talk about two major macro events this week. One is the US PCE plus personal income and expenditure report on Thursday, As the FOMC interest rate meeting is scheduled for next week on the 27th and 28th, this data is the final reference before the market interest rate meeting, The trend of the entire risk market is highly dependent on the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is a consensus that goes without saying. However, from the current perspective, this PCE meeting may be vacant for a simple reason: There is uncertainty in this round of PCE data, which is actually a problem left over from the US government shutdown. Due to the previous government shutdown resulting in a missing CPI for October, the BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis has explicitly stated that it will use the average CPI for September and November to estimate the inflation data for October. This also means that the credibility of PCE's data this week is not enough, returning to the tone we just set for it, which is that the uncertainty is too strong, and most funds, whether institutional or investor, will use hedging and deleveraging to cope with the ambiguity of the data. At the same time, even if hawks in the United States know that there are estimation components, they will take the opportunity to speculate on inflation stickiness and suppress the prices of risky assets, unless the data is significantly biased towards dovish. The second one is Friday's Flash PMI and Michigan Consumer Confidence Final. Converted into Chinese, it refers to data on enterprise orders and residents' willingness to consume, It's easy to understand. Weakness represents obstacles to US growth, and market sentiment may deteriorate to some extent, If the data on Thursday is not good, there is a high probability of two consecutive declines in the next four weeks. If the data is too poor, the difficulty of continuing to cut interest rates will also increase, and the Fed's soft landing narrative will no longer exist. Additionally, there is a small detail today, as the US stock market is closed and liquidity is thin, the cryptocurrency market is likely to experience significant fluctuations, so it is advisable not to operate.