Haige daily observation 20260119: Air power increases, downward backtesting 93000 (current price $92795) Core viewpoint: 12 bearish indicators vs 9 bullish indicators, the short-term balance of the market tilts towards bearish. My strategy: reduce holdings and wait, prioritize defense, and wait for key signals to become clear. The following is a specific analysis: 1. Comparison of long and short forces • Short lead areas (12 items): Macro pressure: Delayed expectations of interest rate cuts, bearish CPI/non farm data, and strong US bond yields suppressing liquidity; Emotional cooling: Both institutional and retail investors show weak enthusiasm, leading to the outflow of counterfeit currency funds; Technical resistance: SMA120 moving average suppression, exchange net inflows increase selling pressure. • Long support (9 items): On chain confidence: Whale address increases holdings (see long for 100+BTC address changes); • Capital structure: Stable coin growth provides potential buying opportunities, and the market value proportion of Bitcoin increases; Local opportunity: Contract holdings are steadily increasing, and the VDD warning indicator is bullish. • Uncertainty (11 items): The direction of key pressure levels, market stages, and counterfeit seasons is unclear, indicating a market deadlock. 2. Interpretation of key signals • Risk points: The price has fallen below the short-term support of 94000, and if it falls below the support of 91500 (25th line), it may drop to $90000; The inflow of institutional funds has slowed down, and the direction of ETF net inflow data is unclear, weakening the upward momentum. • Hope points: Stable coin supply continues to grow (bullish), and if the macro environment improves (such as expected interest rate cuts and recovery), prices may quickly recover; Long term holders have stable chips, and the stock on the exchange has dropped to a three-year low, reducing selling pressure. 3. My operational plan Position adjustment: The spot position has been reduced to 40%, and cash reserves are pending clearer signals; Clear leveraged positions to avoid liquidation risks under increased volatility. • Additional warehouse conditions: • Breakthrough upwards: Stabilize at $95000 in volume and return to net inflow of ETF funds (confirmed within at least 2 days); • Bottom down: Layout in batches near the 90000-92000 area, with a stop loss set at $88000. Risk control bottom line: If it closes below $92000 for three consecutive days, further reduce the position to 20% to prevent a deep pullback. 4. Summary The current market is in a tug of war between macro suppression and on chain support, with short-term risks outweighing opportunities. Due to external factors such as the US Iran and Greenland issues, there has been an increase in global uncertainty and intensified tensions between the US and Europe. Gold has become the preferred safe haven asset, while Bitcoin, as a macro asset, has experienced significant volatility. Patiently wait for two types of signals: 1. Macro: Federal Reserve policy shift or improvement in inflation data; 2. Fund side: ETFs experience significant net inflows or stablecoin growth exceeds previous highs. Discipline is higher than prediction, and cash is also a position.