The Fed's January decision: Polymarket shows a 95.8% probability of no change. Don't bet on it. With this kind of odds structure, retail investors have no chance of winning. Bet on 'no change'? The odds are too low, and even if you win, you barely make anything. Bet on 'rate hike' or 'rate cut'? With a 4.2% chance, what makes you think you're smarter than the market? The key point is: in these policy gambles, insider info is everywhere. Wall Street already knows the direction in advance. The odds you see are the result of their bets. By the time you enter, you're just holding the bag. 95.8% doesn't mean 'almost certain'; it means 'the big players have already eaten the meat.' The essence of prediction markets is the game of information asymmetry. When the odds are this extreme, it means those with information have already taken their positions. For retail investors to try to win big in this kind of setup isn't bravery—it's giving away money. Have you ever lost money on these 'sure-win bets' on Polymarket?