rick awsb ($people, $people)
rick awsb ($people, $people)|Jan 18, 2026 20:18
Why is the Federal Reserve's massive release of funds the deadliest blow to the US dollar in the new currency war Prior to the Bai Zhihao principle, it may be the only choice for financial institutions in various countries to respond to the AI industry revolution ---Title: The size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet may need to grow in the long run with the growth of the economy and financial system This is a signal repeatedly released by several Federal Reserve officials in recent times. It can be said that the history of the Federal Reserve is unprecedented - this is clearly different from the previous cycle narrative of "expanding balance sheet, shrinking balance sheet, and returning to normal". This may be one of the series of actions taken by the Federal Reserve in response to the long-term impact of the AI revolution. What AI brings is not a new industrial cycle, but rather a combination of multiple cycles. In an era of extremely high capital density, highly irreversible infrastructure investment, and potentially high returns, the real systemic risk does not come from short-term inflation fluctuations, but from interruptions. Once computing power, energy, networks, and data centers are forced to shut down, the cost is exponential and often irreparable. The essence of expanding the balance sheet is to use the credit of the existing system to complete those long-term investments that cannot be waited for in advance. The potential long-term effects of these AI related investments will ultimately determine the fate of the country (if there are still countries in the post AI era) and ultimately determine the fate of fiat currencies. So, the long-term expansion of the US dollar may be the most important blow in the current global new currency war This is certainly not without cost. Expanding the balance sheet internally is essentially exchanging credit for stability. It inevitably dilutes the credit of the US dollar, but if we only see this side, we will misjudge what is happening. If understood using the Bagehot principle, what the Federal Reserve is doing is actually not unfamiliar. Traditionally, the 'last borrower' refers to providing support to temporarily illiquid institutions during a crisis to prevent local problems from escalating into systemic collapse. The difference in the Fed's approach today is that it is not taking over after a crisis breaks out, but rather preventing it before it occurs: AI、 The common characteristics of these new production functions, such as energy, computing power, and infrastructure, are extremely high capital density, high pre investment, and almost irreversible impact once interrupted. If we wait until the 'crisis' appears in a traditional form before the central bank takes action, it is often too late. Therefore, the role of the Federal Reserve as the ultimate borrower has been artificially pre positioned. But the question is precisely here: if the Federal Reserve continues to assume this pre positioned and normalized role as the borrower of last resort, will the credit of the US dollar be continuously depleted? The answer is obvious. But the solutions proposed by the United States have actually been discussed before: resisting foreign aggression to maintain domestic security, embracing encryption, bypassing financial regulations in various countries, and global financial colonization to maintain the status of the US dollar. Is it more reasonable to see the changing attitude of the United States towards cryptocurrency in the context of the AI era? Thus, a seemingly contradictory but logically highly consistent structure has been formed: on the one hand, we should expand the internal balance sheet, assume the responsibility of the last borrower, and stabilize the banking system, the treasury bond market and the financial infrastructure; On the other hand, the coverage of the US dollar is constantly expanding in new markets through encryption, stablecoins, and new financial forms. Within a core and controllable system, the United States accepts a certain degree of credit dilution risk in exchange for the system not going wrong; In the peripheral and non US financial systems, it uses stablecoins to expand the use and pricing power of the US dollar to hedge this risk. From this perspective, the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is not a bet that the dollar will always be safe, but an acknowledgement of the existence of uncertainty and an adjustment of the position of risk exposure in advance. It is under pressure within a controllable range and expanding in new markets. Mainstream media and institutions interpret today's various phenomena as signals of the decline of the US dollar, but what they overlook is the imminent "AI induced supersonic tsunami" that the global financial system is about to face - (Elon Musk). The path of the US dollar today is likely to be the most rational choice that the sovereign monetary and financial system can make in the face of such significant structural changes.
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