Why prediction markets can't actually work "as is" Prediction markets beat vanilla voting because there’s real skin in the game — if you’re wrong, you lose money. But they also have bubbles. They’re still financial markets, just with simpler payoffs and bounded extremes. They can surface insider info, but it's a double-edge sword: insiders often don’t want to trade if positions are visible on-chain. Hiding positions or delaying disclosure helps, but you still need visible prices for the market to actually learn, which can lead to bubbles. Using prediction markets for real decisions is hard. You’d need lots of conditional markets, real liquidity, and active market making. Naive market making will lose money to informed traders — that loss is basically the price you pay for information and someone will have to foot the bill. Prediction markets could work to a certain extent, but only when they’re subsidized and private — not as a universal replacement for voting.(Sasha.waves)