Is ETF liquidity coming back? No, not yet. The ETFs that have the most direct impact on Bitcoin’s price are Fidelity (FBTC) and ARK (ARKB). In fact, Bitcoin’s price has closely followed the cumulative flows of FBTC and ARKB. However, - FBTC has failed to break its previous high since March last year, and - ARKB has actually been trending lower since July this year. This is not something you easily notice unless you look closely at the data. It’s the same pattern we saw with MSTR peaking around November 2024 and failing to make a new high for nearly a year. In other words, liquidity is clearly losing strength. So the kind of liquidity many people are expecting has not returned yet. What about BlackRock’s IBIT? Yes, it is important one of the most important sources of liquidity. But most of IBIT’s buying happens off-market (OTC), which means it does not directly push up market prices. To be blunt, if IBIT had not been buying at the current pace, we would likely have already seen a much deeper drop. The problem is that even IBIT’s liquidity is starting to weaken compared to before. Short-term inflows may come back, but from a trend perspective, the picture is still negative. And if there is no longer enough demand to absorb OTC selling, those coins will eventually flow into the open market.(mignolet)