[Analysis: The Influence of Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle is Weakening, Policy Forces are Reshaping Trading Logic] BlockBeats News, January 16: The market is entering a new phase dominated by policy signals, as the four-year cycle model, long regarded as a core narrative for Bitcoin, is weakening. Analysis indicates that political and macroeconomic policies are gradually surpassing on-chain factors such as halving in their impact on prices. Despite a strong U.S. stock market in 2025, Bitcoin's performance has been relatively lagging, reflecting that the market is increasingly driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite. Under the traditional model, the early part of 2026 should mark the end of the cycle, but current trends show that investors are delaying this phase, with policy factors taking the lead. Institutional analysis suggests that pre-election fiscal stimulus and the blurred boundaries between fiscal and monetary policies are creating an environment akin to 'financial repression.' Against the backdrop of high government spending and suppressed real interest rates, the attractiveness of traditional bonds and credit is declining, while the allocation value of digital assets is rising. Looking ahead to 2026, the market generally believes that Bitcoin's trajectory will depend more on policy direction and regulatory developments, particularly the legislative structure of the U.S. crypto market. Analysts point out that institutional demand driven by ETFs remains a long-term support, but policy changes will determine whether institutional funds further enter the market.