Is the rebound peaking or the bull market starting??? At the end of the 25th, when I renewed my contract with the Glassnode team, they recognized my contributions to the Chinese community over the past year, especially granting me access to proprietary signals that were originally only available to institutional clients. To be honest, the content here is completely different from what I have seen in the past (too professional), so much so that I haven't fully researched it in so much time. However, there is one indicator that I have observed and believe is more effective in capturing the high range of rebounds. Here, I would like to share it with my friends! ——Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS) The official explanation for this indicator is as follows: The Bitcoin Risk Signal gauges the amount of risk of a major drawdown in bitcoin price. It is based on a set of proprietary indicators, including bitcoin price data, on-chain data, and a selection of other trading metrics. That is to say, it is based on a series of comprehensive data, but what are the specific algorithms, logic, and principles? Don't ask me, I don't know either. But the usage is simple, that is, when BRS drops from 100 to 0, there are only two possibilities: 1. The bull market starts; 2. The rebound has peaked; Let's first take a look at a few cases (for those who don't want to see the derivation process, you can jump directly to Figure 4 at the end to see the conclusion): Case 1: The period of bull to bear transformation (Figure 1) At this stage, BRS=100 means that the short-term risk of BTC decline has reached its peak, and there is a high probability of a oversold rebound thereafter; If there is no signal reminder, it is difficult for us to grasp where the rebound is in the high point area. When BRS drops from 100 to 0, the answer is clearly given. Therefore, we can see from Figure 1 that the three high points of the rebound after entering the bear market cycle in 2018 all occurred after the BRS dropped to 0 and maintained for a short period of time. Simply put, when BRS=100, one can bounce back, and when BRS drops to 0 and remains stable for a period of time, it is the time to exit. (Figure 2) The same applies to the rebound before entering the bear market in 2022; In January 2022, BRS rose to 100, fluctuating back and forth until March when BRS fell back to 0, corresponding to the high point of rebound during the same period. From June to August 2022, BTC rebounded from $18000 to $24000, and the signal was also clear. Case 2: The Beginning of a Bull Market (Figure 3) At the beginning of a bull market, when BRS drops from 100 to 0 and then returns to 100 again, it corresponds to a complete strong trend market for BTC. We have found similar situations in 2023-2025, as well as in previous bull market cycles. So, for us to use this signal as a trading reference, the first step is to determine whether there is a greater possibility of "bear to bull" or "bull to bear" in the general direction of the current bull bear transition period? On this basis, we can choose the correct perspective among the two possibilities mentioned above. I personally think the probability of the latter is higher. Although you all know that I have been firmly bullish on BTC for a long time; I am an optimist, but I cannot be blindly optimistic either. My consistent principle is to integrate various conditions and data, maintain rationality, and respect objectivity. (Figure 4) What we see now is: BRS rises to 100 on May 1.21, 2025, corresponding to BTC falling to $82000; Afterwards, the indicators continued to fluctuate until January 14, 2026, when BRS dropped to 0, corresponding to BTC rebounding to $97000; Therefore, based on the above general direction judgment, my opinion is that this belongs to the "high point area of rebound". But if you were to ask, 'Will it continue to rebound up to 100000?'? Of course, this possibility cannot be ruled out. As mentioned earlier, when BRS remains at 0 for a period of time, it is a high point area for rebound. When you choose to gradually exit within this range, compared to the low point of BTC when BRS rises to 100 next time, it is highly likely that you will not be wrong. Of course, if you differ from my judgment in the overall direction and believe that the current direction is a "bear to bull" transition, then the current BRS drop to 0 is actually the beginning stage of a bull market. You don't need to refer to my viewpoint at all, just hold on firmly. Everyone has their own way of understanding, and not everything I say may be correct. Just follow your heart. The above is only for learning exchange and not for investment advice! ---------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits