Fund managers warn that inflation in 2026 may exceed expectations, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates remains uncertain

On January 16th, fund managers pointed out that the soaring metal prices, AI driven rise in energy and infrastructure costs, and the independence uncertainty brought about by Trump's replacement of the Federal Reserve chairman in May may lead to inflation levels far exceeding expectations in 2026. At present, inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts in 2026 may be difficult to achieve, or even no interest rate cuts throughout the year. Some institutions have adopted defensive strategies, and investors believe that if the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 4.3%, it may become a warning signal for inflation and financial market pressure.